While some KU fans disagreed with me, there were reasons I believed my statement to be true. KU only has one game left (at Texas Tech) where it will be an underdog, and Ken Pomeroy’s projections had the Jayhawks — 7-2 now — finishing conference play at 13-5, with no other team better than 11-7.
Estimating KU’s odds to win the Big 12 is all a guessing game, though, until we get some actual data. For help, I turned to Pomeroy, asking if he could run 10,000 updated simulations to see how likely KU is to win at least a share of this year’s league title.
He sent an email back Wednesday morning with the numbers.
Here’s a full look at each team’s current odds to win at least a share of the Big 12 championship:
KU has improved its stock significantly over the past month. Heading into conference play, the Jayhawks were 47 percent to win the league according to Pomeroy’s numbers, followed by West Virginia and Texas Tech at 22 percent each and Oklahoma at 18 percent.
In short: Over nine games, KU has gone from a coin flip to a roughly 4-in-5 favorite.
And while that might not be a “near lock,” it’s still an enviable place to be.