The Buzz

So who’s going to win?

Struggling to figure out who’s going to come out on top come election day?

Join the crowd. The 2014 elections in Kansas are tough to figure.

But have no fear. A group of intrepid Sunflower State political scientists have weighed in with their forecasts for governor, U.S. Senate, secretary of state and control of the U.S. Senate.

Here we go:

BURDETT LOOMIS, University of Kansas

Governor: Paul Davis by 3-4 percent.

U.S. Senate: Greg Orman “by a whisker.”

Secretary of State: Kris Kobach by 1-2 percent.

Control of the U.S. Senate: Republicans with 52 seats.

BOB BEATTY, Washburn University.

Governor: Davis. “I’m just going off the polls. I’d say Davis by 2 (points) or more.”

U.S. Senate: Orman by less than a point. Given the barrage of ads in this race, the independent is like a “boxer trying to survive the last round.”

Secretary of State: Kobach. “He’s had a pretty steady lead.”

Control of the U.S. Senate: Republicans.

CHAPMAN RACKAWAY, Fort Hays State University

Governor: Davis.

(This is) the toughest one of them all, and the one that's confounded me this entire cycle. Knowing the GOP’s ability to mobilize since 2010, I imagined that there would be a late...surge (for Brownback), but that has not materialized.

Add in the $23 million revenue shortfall for October, and I am not at all confident that the governor will win now.

Senate: Orman.

I've had this sense for a while that Orman was going to win. I will stay with that. Again it will be a narrow 1 to 2 points.

Roberts had a nice piece lined up with the (K-State football coach Bill) Snyder endorsement, but he's getting more pushback from that in the media that he's getting traction on the ad.

Orman has continued to be very disciplined and run a strong campaign.

Secretary of State: Kobach.

Most of the polling seems to indicate that Kobach will win, but it won't be a big win. It's probably a five-point victory for Kobach.

Control of the U.S. Senate: Republican.

PATRICK MILLER, University of Kansas

Governor: Davis by a few points, but no landslide.

U.S. Senate: Orman by a hair, but I can easily see good GOTV (get out the vote) of core Republicans flipping this to Roberts. Definitely closer than the governor's race but the polling has advantaged Orman.

Secretary of State: Kobach by a couple points, but this race has the largest undecided percentage of the “big three” Kansas races and is the hardest to predict because of that. Voters haven't paid much attention to it.

A Schodorf win has a good probability still, but Kobach likely has a slight edge.

U.S. Senate: Yes, Republicans are likely take the chamber, but with a small majority given their current deficit.

But changing control won't change much since neither party will have 60 seats to break a filibuster, and neither party has an incentive to compromise.

Senate rules ensure gridlock no matter who has the majority.

MEL KAHN, Wichita State University

Governor: Davis. “I think the Brownback experiment is perceived as a failure.”

U.S. Senate: Roberts. “Let me get a coin. I don’t know.”

Secretary of State: Kobach. “Too much name recognition. Too smooth.”

Control of the U.S. Senate: Republicans.

KENNETH CIBOSKI, Wichita State University

Governor: Paul Davis “by a couple of points.”

U.S. Senate: Pat Roberts

Secretary of State: Kris Kobach

Control of the U.S. Senate: Republicans.