Severe thunderstorms that moved through the Kansas City area Tuesday morning have taken away a bit of the punch from the ones expected in the metropolitan area this evening.
“Its a bit of a tricky forecast,” said Andy Bailey, warning coordination meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill. “We had those thunderstorms from this morning that really disrupted the atmosphere and it adds a new level of uncertainty to the forecast.”
Storms likely will develop over central Kansas in the afternoon, which is where the strongest storms will be for the next 24 hours.
Those storms are expected to move eastward and eventually reach the Kansas and Missouri border between 7 and 9 p.m., followed by repeated rounds of storms through much of the night once they start.
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“As the storms move east from there, they will gradually weaken and progress eastward overnight,” Bailey said. “The biggest threats from these storms for us in our area will probably be hail, the potential for more flooding and maybe some strong winds.”
A tornado can’t be ruled out, Bailey said, but a tornado is not as big of a risk compared with the other severe weather threats.
“The storms we had this morning really modified the atmosphere and took away a bit of the punch that had been there,” he said. “Whenever you have that sort of thing happen, it really complicates things not only with the forecast but it really kind of stabilizes the atmosphere and makes it harder for thunderstorms to form.”
Initially as the storms move into the Kansas City area, they are expected to weaken. It might take a couple of rounds of the storms coming through for the atmosphere to become unstable.
Due to the uncertainty, people are urged to have a source for severe weather warnings and to watch forecasts for updates, Bailey said. The National Weather Service is on Twitter at www.twitter.com/NWSKansasCity. It also has a Facebook page.
The areas most likely will be under the gun during the afternoon and evening will be between a line from Salina to Wichita on the west and Lawrence to Parsons on the east.
Another round of of more isolated, severe weather is possible Wednesday afternoon and evening.
“As this system continues to churn eastward, it will not completely clear our area until probably Wednesday evening or maybe even overnight Wednesday,” Bailey said.
And additional thunderstorms are likely Friday night through the weekend.
“We are in a very active pattern,” he said. “We’re just going to have periodic storms over the next several days.”