Coronavirus
When will COVID-19 peak in Kansas and Missouri? How bad will it be? Models show trend
Update: This post was updated Thursday, April 2, to reflect that the models assume some public health measures that have not been taken in Missouri and Kansas. The models are updated with new data daily.
The new coronavirus is projected to reach its peak in Kansas and Missouri in April and May according to research from the University of Washington.
As the number of people in the U.S. infected by the virus rises exponentially, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington released a database last week explaining projections for when the disease would peak, how much strain would be placed on medical resources in that time, and how many would die.
The projections include forecasts for what may happen in Kansas and Missouri.
The projections were developed using data from national and local governments as well as the World Health Organization. The researchers observed data from select locations to develop a statistical model to predict deaths and hospital usage.
The data assumes full social distancing measures including closing of non-essential services and educational facilities, a stay-at-home order, and severe limits to travel.
Here’s what that data, which is updated daily, said on April 2:
Missouri
The coronavirus is projected to peak in Missouri on May 21, according to research from the University of Washington.
However, that projection assumes full social distancing measures are in place within the next seven days and through May.
Missouri, Gov. Mike Parson said Wednesday that he is not ready to implement a statewide stay-at-home order.
The state, which had 1,581 confirmed cases of coronavirus and 18 deaths as of Wednesday, has identified about three times as many cases as Kansas has. It has also tested about three times as many residents as Kansas. People tested in both states have tested positive at a rate of about 8 percent.
The University of Washington data projects the state will have no shortage in hospital or ICU beds. The state is expected to use just over half of its available ICU beds and just over a quarter of its hospital beds. About 268 ventilators could be needed.
By August 4th, the research predicts, 1,290 people will die in the state with 22 people dying on the day the virus peaks.
Kansas
COVID-19 is projected to reach its peak in Kansas more than three weeks before Missouri, on April 28.
However, the data assumes travel limitations that Kansas has not implemented.
As of Wednesday the state had confirmed at least 482 cases of the virus and nine deaths. About 8 percent of the 5,424 residents tested had the virus, according to state data.
At the virus’s peak the state is not projected to have a shortage of hospital or ICU beds, according to the University of Washington data. The state is expected to use nearly half it’s available hospital beds and nearly all its available ICU beds. It is expected to need 221 ventilators, the research predicts.
By August 4th, 640 people will die in the state, the research predicts. The projections show that 18 will die the day the virus peaks.
Nationwide
Nationwide more than 216,000 people have been infected with the virus and more than 5,000 have died according to a database maintained by Johns Hopkins University.
The University of Washington predicts that the national peak of resource use will come on April 15.
At that point, there is a predicted shortage of more than 87,000 hospital beds and more than 19,000 intensive care unit beds. When that peak comes, the database said, 2,644 people in the U.S. will die per day.
By the end of the pandemic the research predicts More than 93,000 Americans will have died.
Comments