Movie News & Reviews

Who will win Oscar? Here are the chances of the top nominees

Mahershala Ali is a front-runner for supporting actor, and “Moonlight” has a good chance to win best picture — if enough voters see it.
Mahershala Ali is a front-runner for supporting actor, and “Moonlight” has a good chance to win best picture — if enough voters see it.

“La La Land” has the most nominations, but does that mean it will clean up at the Academy Awards ceremony Feb. 26? Here are the chances of the nine best picture nominees.

“La La Land”

This musical romance earned a record-tying 14 nominations, including best picture, director, actress (Emma Stone) and actor (Ryan Gosling). Hollywood loves a Hollywood tale, but is it too frothy to claim the top prize?

A jazz pianist falls for an aspiring actress in Los Angeles. Starring Ryan Gosling, Emma Stone, John Legend, Rosemarie DeWitt, Finn Wittrock, Callie Hernandez, Sonoya Mizuno, Jessica Rothe, Tom Everett Scott and Josh Pence.


This coming-of-age drama has drawn only $16 million at the box office, but it could make a big splash on Oscar night if enough voters actually see it. With eight nominations, it’s a strong contender for best picture, and Mahershala Ali is a front-runner for supporting actor.

A timeless story of human connection and self-discovery, Moonlight chronicles the life of a young black man from childhood to adulthood as he struggles to find his place in the world while growing up in a rough neighborhood of Miami.


This aliens tale has eight nominations, including best picture, director and adapted screenplay, but Oscar doesn’t really care for sci-fi. Any wins would be in sound editing and other technical categories.

When mysterious spacecraft touch down across the globe, an elite team - lead by expert linguist Louise Banks (Amy Adams) - are brought together to investigate. As mankind teeters on the verge of global war, Banks and the team race against time for

“Manchester by the Sea”

The film has six big nominations and could win in several categories, including best picture, actor (Casey Affleck), supporting actress (Michelle Williams) and director (Kenneth Lonergan).

An uncle is forced to take care of his teenage nephew after the boy's father dies.

“Hacksaw Ridge”

Mel Gibson’s bloody World War II saga received six nominations, including picture, director and actor (Andrew Garfield). Though it appeals to the large voting bloc of older academy voters, it’s not a contender to win.

WWII American Army Medic Desmond T. Doss, who served during the Battle of Okinawa, refuses to kill people, and becomes the first man in American history to receive the Medal of Honor without firing a shot.


This true story of an Indian man searching for his birth parents has six nominations, including picture and supporting actor (Dev Patel), but is not seen as a big factor come Oscar night.

A five-year-old Indian boy gets lost on the streets of Calcutta, thousands of kilometers from home. He survives many challenges before being adopted by a couple in Australia; 25 years later, he sets out to find his lost family.


Denzel Washington has stiff competition for best actor, but Viola Davis, who plays his long-suffering wife, has a good shot at a supporting actress win. “Fences” was also nominated for best picture and adapted screenplay.

An African-American father struggles with race relations in the United States while trying to raise his family in the 1950s and coming to terms with the events of his life.

“Hell or High Water”

This modern Western has four nominations, including best picture and supporting actor (Jeff Bridges), but it might be shooting blanks on Oscar night.

A divorced father and his ex-con older brother resort to a desperate scheme in order to save their family's ranch in West Texas.

“Hidden Figures”

This feel-good, space-age civil rights story is up for best picture, supporting actress (Octavia Spencer) and adapted screenplay, but, as they say in Hollywood, sometimes you’re just lucky to be nominated.

Based on a true story. A team of African-American women provide NASA with important mathematical data needed to launch the program's first successful space missions.

Sharon Hoffmann: 816-234-4457, @Sharonakc

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