Back to web version
Why baseball is tougher the second time around
By SAM MELLINGERThe Kansas City Star
SURPRISE, Ariz. | Gil Meche is back, and that’s great. Jose Guillen’s here now, bringing that middle-of-the-order pop, and that’s important.
This very well could be the year the Royals show big-boy steps toward contention, but those hopes and the $91 million investments into Meche and Guillen won’t go anywhere without progress from five guys who will make a total of about $2 million this year.
Brian Bannister, Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, Tony Peña and Joakim Soria aren’t rookies anymore. They’re sophomore players about to live the baseball reality that it’s way tougher your second year around than first.
“By far,” says catcher John Buck, “it’s way tougher.”
General manager Dayton Moore says one of his biggest concerns this season is the continued development of the Royals’ five second-year players, a group that includes one-third of the lineup, the No. 2 starting pitcher, and the closer. Manager Trey Hillman is well aware of the potential for a setback, and says he’ll take a handle-with-care approach.
It will surprise no Royals fans to know that Bannister has studied the issue and has a well-thought-out plan.
•••
Recent Royals history is dotted with both sides.
Mark Teahen, after some initial struggles in 2006, won the team’s player of the year award in his second year. David DeJesus, after finishing sixth in the AL Rookie of the Year voting in 2004, improved his OPS by 42 points. Mike Sweeney set a franchise record with 144 RBIs in his second full season.
On the other side are cautions like Angel Berroa, Carlos Febles and Zack Greinke. Berroa won the 2003 AL Rookie of the Year award, then the next year saw his home runs cut more than half, his OPS dip by 96 points and even his range factor slip.
Febles went from Carlos Beltran’s sidekick in the Royals’ Dos Carlos tandem to a non-factor. Greinke was the team’s pitcher of the year in 2004, then 1-11 at the All-Star break in 2005.
Even Carlos Beltran was susceptible to a second-year letdown; when injuries limited him to 98 games, he hit just .247.
So what gives? Why the second-year dip?
“The league adjusts to you, and you have to adjust back,” Buck says, citing the most popular theory.
“Baseball is so mental,” DeJesus says, pointing out that a short slump can more easily turn into a long one for a young player.
“I have no idea,” Tony Peña says, which is honest since he hasn’t been through it.
“There’s no way to know for sure,” Moore says, which might be the best answer.
Bannister, for his part, doesn’t buy into the league-adjusts theory. Admittedly, his focus and research revolve far more around pitchers than position players, but he sees too many guys who have long-term success without overpowering stuff to believe it’s all about adjustments.
Bannister’s theory is that most second-year slumps involve either injury or guys getting too comfortable with the big-league life.
This “year-after effect,” Bannister thinks, can be best fought by pitchers through paced spring-training preparation and close monitoring of innings pitched.
Just like marathon training calls for slow increases in mileage, one popular baseball theory says pitchers shouldn’t increase their total innings by more than 30.
Bannister’s 185 2/3 innings last year (Omaha and Kansas City combined) were 31 more than his previous professional high.
That, combined with Bannister’s poor finish in 2007 and a goal of increasing his innings by another 20 or 30 have him preparing a little differently this spring.
“You have this tendency to overdo everything because you want to show off your stuff,” he says. “But you also have to throttle back a little bit, recover, make sure you’re not throwing too much between starts, make sure you have that extra stamina.”
•••
Hillman has a plan to help out the second-year players.
He likes the talent of each sophomore. The focus of Gordon, the offensive production of Butler, the game study of Peña and Bannister, and the coolness of Soria.
“The biggest thing I need to do is protect these guys,” Hillman says. “Protection is the biggest thing, because this game is so hard. When’s the right time to give them a day off? That’s key, it’s real important in specific matchups for the offensive guys, and for Soria, how many days we go with him in a row.”
Moore says one of the things that makes this all so hard is that continued development comes only through continued competition, continued exposure to major-league baseball.
It’s not quite sink-or-swim — Hillman is there to play lifeguard — but you get the idea.
For his part, Butler thinks second-year regression comes when guys get too comfortable. And he doesn’t think that’s a concern with him or any of the rest of the Royals’ freshman class of 2007.
“That ain’t gonna happen with me or any of these guys,” Butler says. “We’re dedicated to winning a championship, so that’s not being satisfied with any part of your game.”
Here’s the good and bad some Royals have encountered in their second seasons:
•Angel Berroa: After winning the AL Rookie of the Year award in 2003, Berroa’s homers dropped from 17 to eight and his average fell 25 points.
•Mark Teahen: In his second season, Teahen’s slugging percentage jumped from .376 as a rookie to .517 and he was the Royals’ player of the year.
•Zack Greinke: He was the Royals’ pitcher of the year in 2004 as a rookie, but by the All-Star break the next season he had a 1-11 record.
•David DeJesus: Placed sixth in the AL Rookie of the Year voting in 2004, then improved his OPS by 42 points the following year.