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One of the recurring notions in this column has been unreliability of the most familiar baseball statistics when using them for evaluative purposes.
Batting average isn’t as important as on-base percentage or slugging percentage. RBIs for batters and wins for pitchers are too team-dependent. By now, you know the drill.
Nevertheless, it would be incorrect to say that “stat guys” don’t get excited about those old-school categories, the ones that have adorned the backs of baseball cards since seemingly forever.
I mention this because Cleveland’s Cliff Lee won his 20th game Monday against the White Sox. In doing so, Lee not only became the majors’ first 20-game winner in 2008, but he also became the first Cleveland pitcher to win that many since Gaylord Perry in 1974. Yep, Lee has done what the likes of Wayne Garland, Len Barker, Charles Nagy and Dave Burba could not.
By any measure, Lee is having a great season. Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus makes a compelling argument for Lee as the AL’s MVP. Still, the Indians are averaging more than six runs per outing with Lee on the mound. His record is a result of great pitching and good fortune.
That said, let’s look into a few of the ways in which Lee’s year has been historically unique and why it may become even more so by the end of the season.
Lee has won 20 of his 22 decisions this season. No big-league pitcher in history has won 20 or more games while losing two or fewer.
In fact, only four pitchers have won at least 20 while losing three games. All four of those guys accomplished that feat while pitching for New York teams: Preacher Roe, 22-3 for Brooklyn in 1951; Ron Guidry, 25-3 for the Yankees in 1978; David Cone, 20-3 for the Mets in 1988; and Roger Clemens, 20-3 for the Yankees in 2001. Of those, only Guidry had a better ERA than Lee compared with his league average.
It’s kind of unfortunate that the Indians’ recent 10-game winning streak conspired with the Royals’ August swoon to catapult Cleveland safely out of the AL Central basement. If the Indians were to finish last, Lee might have staked claim to the greatest-ever season by a pitcher on a cellar dweller. That distinction is generally given to Steve Carlton’s 1972 performance, when he won 27 games for a Phillies team that won only 59 all season.
The all-time record for winning percentage by a pitcher is .947, held by reliever Roy Face, who went 18-1 for the Pirates in 1959. That record is safe — Lee would have to go 37-2 to beat Face. Unless Eric Wedge drastically changes how he uses Lee, he’s not going to get there.
However, if Lee manages to avoid losing another game this season, he will hold the best winning percentage for a pitcher with at least 20 decisions. His 20-2 mark (.909) is better than Greg Maddux’s 19-2 (.905) record in 1995.
Sure, I get cranky sometimes when people judge pitchers by won-lost record. But even I have to admit that Lee’s performance is one of the great stories from the 2008 season.
Send e-mail to bdoolittle@kcstar.com
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