SURPRISE, Ariz. | Gil Meche is back, and that’s great. Jose Guillen’s here now, bringing that middle-of-the-order pop, and that’s important.
This very well could be the year the Royals show big-boy steps toward contention, but those hopes and the $91 million investments into Meche and Guillen won’t go anywhere without progress from five guys who will make a total of about $2 million this year.
Brian Bannister, Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, Tony Peña and Joakim Soria aren’t rookies anymore. They’re sophomore players about to live the baseball reality that it’s way tougher your second year around than first.
“By far,” says catcher John Buck, “it’s way tougher.”
General manager Dayton Moore says one of his biggest concerns this season is the continued development of the Royals’ five second-year players, a group that includes one-third of the lineup, the No. 2 starting pitcher, and the closer. Manager Trey Hillman is well aware of the potential for a setback, and says he’ll take a handle-with-care approach.
It will surprise no Royals fans to know that Bannister has studied the issue and has a well-thought-out plan.
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Recent Royals history is dotted with both sides.
Mark Teahen, after some initial struggles in 2006, won the team’s player of the year award in his second year. David DeJesus, after finishing sixth in the AL Rookie of the Year voting in 2004, improved his OPS by 42 points. Mike Sweeney set a franchise record with 144 RBIs in his second full season.
On the other side are cautions like Angel Berroa, Carlos Febles and Zack Greinke. Berroa won the 2003 AL Rookie of the Year award, then the next year saw his home runs cut more than half, his OPS dip by 96 points and even his range factor slip.
Febles went from Carlos Beltran’s sidekick in the Royals’ Dos Carlos tandem to a non-factor. Greinke was the team’s pitcher of the year in 2004, then 1-11 at the All-Star break in 2005.
Even Carlos Beltran was susceptible to a second-year letdown; when injuries limited him to 98 games, he hit just .247.
So what gives? Why the second-year dip?
“The league adjusts to you, and you have to adjust back,” Buck says, citing the most popular theory.
“Baseball is so mental,” DeJesus says, pointing out that a short slump can more easily turn into a long one for a young player.
“I have no idea,” Tony Peña says, which is honest since he hasn’t been through it.
“There’s no way to know for sure,” Moore says, which might be the best answer.
Bannister, for his part, doesn’t buy into the league-adjusts theory. Admittedly, his focus and research revolve far more around pitchers than position players, but he sees too many guys who have long-term success without overpowering stuff to believe it’s all about adjustments.
Bannister’s theory is that most second-year slumps involve either injury or guys getting too comfortable with the big-league life.
This “year-after effect,” Bannister thinks, can be best fought by pitchers through paced spring-training preparation and close monitoring of innings pitched.
Just like marathon training calls for slow increases in mileage, one popular baseball theory says pitchers shouldn’t increase their total innings by more than 30.
Bannister’s 185 2/3 innings last year (Omaha and Kansas City combined) were 31 more than his previous professional high.
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