You can look at this two ways.
Baseball Prospectus’ Playoff Odds Report, which you can readhere,
doesn’t paint a rosy picture for the Royals.
The Royals are projected to win 78 games and finish fourth in the AL Central, although just three games behind second-place Cleveland. In Baseball Prospectus’ simulated seasons, the Royals made the playoffs 12.1 percent of the time.
The good news is that 78 wins would be the most for the Royals since 2003. Got to find a silver lining in there, right? The Royals’ odds of winning the World Series was 0.6 percent, which is better than the Orioles.
Still ... what to think of 78?
After they traded Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi for James Shields and Wade Davis as part of the seven-player deal, there was talk of the Royals going for it this season. But would 78 wins achieve that goal? What is the definition of a successful season?
Since that unlikely 83-79 finish in 2003, the Royals have lost 90 or more games in nine of the last 10 seasons. The lone exception was 2008 when they went 75-87. Remember that exciting season? Since then the Royals have averaged 69 victories per season.
So 78 wins would be an improvement. But would it be enough? Vote in our poll and leave your thoughts.