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Soria is sensational as closer, but should he move to rotation?
BY SAM MELLINGERThe Kansas City Star
J oakim Soria can do the splits. Did you know that? Unofficially, they’re calling him the only Royals player who can do the splits, and that’s just the beginning of how he’s unique.
He rocks braces and an Abraham Lincoln beard, plus usually a smile — and why not? He was the primary setup man in his second big-league game, the closer in his fourth, and now, into his second season, looks capable of becoming one of the game’s best.
Numbers don’t always do it justice, but here goes: a perfect eight-for-eight on saves, zero runs surrendered in 13 one-inning appearances, a .071 batting average-against, one walk and 15 strikeouts.
“He’s the only guy on the team any of us would say, ‘I’ll bet my next paycheck this is a strike,’ ” says Brian Bannister. “That’s how much faith we have in him. We all laugh when we watch him pitch. You just know the first pitch is going to be a strike, and it’s probably going to be knee high.”
Soria is so good, so quick — and with seemingly no strain — that teammates and Royals officials can’t help but wonder about someday moving him to the rotation. His use has become one of the perpetual talking points among Royals fans.
Royals manager Trey Hillman, not one who lacks confidence in his decisions, has even second-guessed himself when he hasn’t used Soria.
The only problem the Royals have had with Soria is providing him with save chances — only eight in the first 33 games.
“I don’t know if we’ve seen what he’s capable of doing,” says catcher John Buck. “Personally, I think he could be a really good starter. He has a lot of good other pitches that the league hasn’t even seen. I’ve caught him in the bullpen. There’s about three other pitches that nobody’s ever seen, because he doesn’t need ’em.”
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Yes, the starter question. Soria’s role as the team’s closer won’t change anytime soon — almost certainly not this season and probably not next, either.
But, gosh, he’s been dominant … his pitch catalog translates better as a starter … his personality fits as a starter … his entire background is as a starter … well, you can’t help but wonder.
Louie Medina is the Royals scout who saw Soria in Mexico two years ago and convinced the team to take him in the Rule 5 draft. Medina watched Soria as a starter.
“I’m the only one in our organization who’s seen him do that,” Medina says. “He’s very impressive as a starter. You hate to take a guy out of a role he’s absolutely dominating, but if it better serves our organization at some point, you have to think about it.
“He was pretty fantastic as a starter.”
Fantastic enough that he threw a perfect game two days after the Royals selected him. Medina says Soria lacks the pure stuff of a classic No. 1 starter, but does have the “feel to pitch” and command of an ace.
Medina originally wrote Soria up as a No. 3 starter in the big leagues, and now calls that a conservative estimate.
“He could absolutely be better than that,” Medina says. “You’ve seen this market. Teams pay a lot of money for mediocre starters in this game, and he can be better than that.”
General manager Dayton Moore said this week he felt confident that Soria could be a good starter, but wasn’t in a hurry to make any moves because he liked the rotation and Soria’s success as the closer.
Hillman echoed those thoughts, that Soria could fit anywhere on the Royals pitching staff, but was most valuable as a closer and that he’d be hesitant to move Soria from a role where he’s so good.
“Yeah, I look at him as one of the game’s better closers right now,” says Indians designated hitter Travis Hafner. “He’s been around enough, done enough.”
The Royals considered moving Soria to the rotation last year, before settling on putting Zack Greinke there and leaving Soria alone as the closer. They had internal talks again in the offseason but, again, opted to leave him be.
There have been numerous studies to measure the importance of a closer vs. a starter. The best is probably one by Baseball Prospectus, which developed a statistic called “leverage” to factor the increased importance of the later innings in tight games where closers generally work.
According to that stat, 80 innings of Soria as the closer would be roughly equivalent to 140 innings of Soria as a starter. Further research by Nate Silver discovered you should expect a 25 percent increase in ERA with a transition to the rotation, but Rany Jazayerli’s analysis predicts Soria’s move would translate more successfully than most.
“I don’t think about being a starter,” Soria says. “If they need me as a starter, I’ll do it. Whatever gets me in the game, I’ll do it. Whatever they want me to do, I’ll do. If later in my career they want me to be a starter, sure, yes. But for now, I just enjoy this moment.”
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In the meantime, the Royals have a dominant closer who may only be getting better. It’s a valuable commodity, the kind that hasn’t been seen around here since, what, the pre-strike version of Jeff Montgomery? Maybe longer?
Mariano Rivera, the guy everyone (including Hillman) compares Soria with, is pitching on a three-year, $45 million contract. Joe Nathan, Francisco Cordero, Billy Wagner, Eric Gagne and Francisco Rodriguez are also making $10 million or more per season.
“I think he has the right stuff to be the best, honestly,” said Angels outfielder Torii Hunter. “That curveball, not too many people have that. We’ve got one of the best (Rodriguez) with that curveball. (Soria) has got the same thing. He could be as good as Frankie.”
Hunter is actually two for six against Soria, which makes him one of only seven big leaguers with more than one hit off Soria.
You point out this to Hunter, and he twists his face like you offered Brussels sprouts.
“I was lucky, them two hits,” Hunter says. “I don’t like facing him at all. Two for six? Lucky. I just closed my eyes and swung. Lucky.”