The statistics say Mike Aviles is one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball and, please, read this sentence again.</p><p>Yes, according to two of the most trusted and advanced metrics to judge defense, Aviles &#8212; the 27-year-old rookie regarded so lightly that nobody took him in last year&#8217;s Rule 5 draft &#8212; is not only hitting .322 but playing one of the best shortstops in baseball.</p><p>&#8220;Wow, yeah, that surprises me,&#8221; Aviles says. &#8220;It surprises me because that was always one of the biggest reasons I heard for why I didn&#8217;t come up sooner, was that I wasn&#8217;t very good at defense. Thanks for telling me that, that&#8217;s great.&#8221;</p><p>As the Royals prepare for what general manager Dayton Moore has promised to be an eventful offseason, the judgment of Aviles in many ways affects everything the Royals will do.</p><p>There are several things you can take from Aviles&#8217; defensive stats, starting with the point that while the metrics used to rate defense have advanced tremendously in recent years, they are still well behind the accepted and trusted numbers that quantify offense.</p><p>But if two of the best defensive stats agree that Aviles is among the best in baseball, does that change the way you judge the stocky, previously overlooked former Division II college player?</p><p>&#8220;Saying he&#8217;s in the top five defensively is a stretch,&#8221; says one talent evaluator. &#8220;He&#8217;s better than I expected, but I&#8217;d put him closer to average, maybe a little bit above average.&#8221;</p><p>&#8220;I believe my eyes and not those stats,&#8221; says another evaluator. &#8220;And my eyes say he&#8217;s an average shortstop.&#8221;</p><p>&#8226; &#8226; &#8226;</p><p>Royals manager Trey Hillman still shakes his head.</p><p>Two months ago, and a grounder up the middle looks like a base hit all the way. Aviles sprints over, gets the ball in shallow center field, spins, plants his right foot and gets the out at first base.</p><p>This is why Hillman says he&#8217;s not surprised to hear the defensive metrics are kind to Aviles.</p><p>&#8220;From my initial read at spring training, my answer would be yes,&#8221; Hillman says. &#8220;What I&#8217;ve seen him do here at the major-league level, my answer is no.&#8221;</p><p>A quick explainer is in order here of the two measurements that have Aviles ranked so high. Revised zone rating is a measurement of fielding range done with a complicated analysis to figure how often a fielder converts balls hit to his &#8220;zone&#8221; into outs.</p><p>Just like Aviles doesn&#8217;t have enough plate appearances per team game played to qualify for the batting title, he doesn&#8217;t have enough defensive innings at shortstop to qualify for the leader board. But if he did, his .863 revised zone rating would rank third, just behind St. Louis&#8217; Cesar Izturis, and ahead of Michael Young, Jimmy Rollins, and Yunel Escobar.</p><p>The other measurement is Plus/Minus, which was invented by John Dewan and part of his annual book, <em>The Fielding Bible</em>. Aviles is a +16, which means he&#8217;s made 16 plays more than the average fielder would make, according to video scouts at Baseball Info Solutions.</p><p>That number puts him fifth overall, behind J.J. Hardy, Escobar, Rollins, and Izturis. He&#8217;s just ahead of Jack Wilson and Cristian Guzman.</p><p>Aviles&#8217; ranking sits at the intersection of a couple of passionate and long-standing baseball debates &#8212; most notably scouts vs. stats, and whether baseball evaluations are too often clouded by preconceived notions.</p><p>Hillman&#8217;s had his mind changed. Some scouts have not.