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Royals  

Posted on Mon, Jul. 21, 2008 10:15 PM

THE STAT GUY

Who’s on first? It should be Billy Butler

Since Billy Butler was recalled from the minor leagues, he has played in 18 games. He has not spent a single inning at first base.

This has me absolutely baffled. What long-term purpose does it serve to have Ross Gload playing first base every day?

Here’s what the Royals need to do with Butler: Each day, write in his name at the No. 4 or 5 slot in the batting order with a (3) for first base noted next to it. Rinse, repeat — each day, for an indefinite number of years.

That scenario is of course dependent upon Butler proving that he doesn’t have a mason’s trowel for a glove. So far, the evidence is inconclusive, which is kind of the point.

That’s not to say Butler may be Keith Hernandez over there. To date, Butler has a .706 zone rating according to the figures at hardballtimes.com. That number, if Butler qualified, would rank near the bottom among AL first basemen, but there are others who are worse.

Gload’s .722 zone rating is only slightly better and is also below the league average. If Butler had played the same amount of innings as Gload, the difference in zone rating would amount to about 1.5 more plays made on the season.

Butler hasn’t played enough innings for these numbers to be meaningful. They don’t suggest that he can be a big-league first baseman, but they also don’t suggest that he can’t. The only way to find out is to put him out there every day and see what happens.

This is a key question as the Royals move into the next couple of seasons.

I’m not too keen about the prospect of having a 22- or 23-year-old designated hitter. There are only two historical instances of a full-time DH that young — Fred McGriff and John Olerud, both of whom were blocked by veteran first-sackers in Toronto when they first arrived in the big leagues.

Teams just don’t pigeonhole 22-year-old players in this way. Magnifying the folly is the possibility that Butler’s development at the plate is being hurt by this circumstance.

For his career, Butler has .783 on-base-plus-slugging percentage (OPS) as a first baseman and a .725 OPS when DHing. Again, he hasn’t played enough first base for those figures to be significant, but they also shouldn’t be ignored.

I s it harder to DH? Well, during the 10-year span entering this season, there were 71 instances of a player appearing in at least 25 games at both first base and DH in the same season. Of those, 39 (55 percent) posted a better OPS when playing the field. The aggregate OPS was .865 with a glove; .849 without.

Maybe Butler can’t play first base in the majors, but don’t you have to play him there to find that out?

Send e-mail to bdoolittle@kcstar.com.

 

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