Choosing Royals’ All-Star is not an automatic decision
By BRADFORD DOOLITTLE
The Kansas City Star
Joakim Soria was an easy choice as the Royals’ All-Star, right?
Not so fast, as Lee Corso might say. True, Soria has pitched about as well as anyone can, with an ERA of 1.62 and 23 saves even after a rough outing on Monday.
Nevertheless, I would venture to say that Soria has barely been the Royals’ most valuable pitcher so far this season. That honor nearly (but not quite) goes to Zack Greinke.
The problem isn’t Soria’s performance. It’s how he’s been used.
The math is simple. The average AL pitcher has allowed 4.44 runs per nine innings this season. Soria has given up 1.62 runs per nine while Greinke’s average is at 3.69 runs.
So there is no doubt that Soria has been better while on the mound. In fact, he’s been at times breathtaking. A joy to watch. Again, this is not about Soria’s performance, but his use.
Soria has thrown only 39 innings this season since he is relegated to a role that didn’t exist before sportswriter Jerome Holtzman drew up the arbitrary standards defining saves in 1960. (The statistic was made official by baseball in 1969.) Greinke has thrown 117 innings.
So, over the season, Soria has saved 12 runs over what an average pitcher would have posted. Greinke, on the other hand, has saved 10 runs above average. Barely any difference.
The standard rule of thumb for anticipating a pitcher’s ERA if he were to move from the bullpen to the rotation is to simply add a run. So if Soria had posted an ERA of 2.62 but thrown 117 innings like Greinke, he would have saved 37 runs over average on the season.
Let’s set aside the Soria-to-the-rotation business for the time being. We’re going to get into that full bore in the near future. Instead, let’s turn to the other possible Royals All-Star: José Guillen.
First of all, if you’re a Royals fan, go to mlb.com and vote for Guillen as many times as you want. The more Royals, the better. Still, do so knowing this: If there is to be a Royals outfielder as a candidate for the last AL roster spot, it shouldn’t be Guillen.
| | AVG | ONB | SLG | HR | R | SB |
| Player A | .316 | .373 | .482 | 9 | 38 | 6 |
| Player B | .272 | .297 | .465 | 13 | 39 | 1 |
Is there any question about which player is having a better season? If you follow the Royals, you’ve no doubt figured out that “Player A” is David DeJesus and “Player B” is Guillen. If you run their respective lines through a runs-created formula, you find that DeJesus has created 50 runs for the Royals this season. Guillen is at 46.
Guillen’s undoing is obviously his on-base percentage. A sub-.300 performance in that category is unacceptable. Never the most disciplined of hitters, Guillen is on pace to draw fewer than 20 walks this season.
Of course, there is a category missing here, and it’s the one that has people thinking so well of Guillen. Guillen has driven in 64 runs this season, which ranks third in the American League. DeJesus has 45 RBIs.
Ugh. Do we really have to go there again? RBIs are a terrible way to evaluate offensive-player value.
Let’s look at it like this. Guillen has 115 plate appearances this season with runners in scoring position. In those situations, he’s driven in 48 runs, or .42 runs per plate appearance. DeJesus has been up 67 times in those spots. He’s driven home 35 of those runners — a ratio of .52 runs per plate appearance with runners in scoring position.
You see the difference? Do you? In every demonstrable way, DeJesus has been better than Guillen. If that Web voting thing lets you write in a candidate and you’re hell-bent to vote for a Royal, make it David DeJesus.
To reach Bradford Doolittle, please send e-mail to bdoolittle@kcstar.com
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