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  • Sports > Royals

    Royals  

    Posted on Wed, May. 07, 2008 10:15 PM

    Soria is sensational as closer, but should he move to rotation?


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    Hillman echoed those thoughts, that Soria could fit anywhere on the Royals pitching staff, but was most valuable as a closer and that he’d be hesitant to move Soria from a role where he’s so good.

    “Yeah, I look at him as one of the game’s better closers right now,” says Indians designated hitter Travis Hafner. “He’s been around enough, done enough.”

    The Royals considered moving Soria to the rotation last year, before settling on putting Zack Greinke there and leaving Soria alone as the closer. They had internal talks again in the offseason but, again, opted to leave him be.

    There have been numerous studies to measure the importance of a closer vs. a starter. The best is probably one by Baseball Prospectus, which developed a statistic called “leverage” to factor the increased importance of the later innings in tight games where closers generally work.

    According to that stat, 80 innings of Soria as the closer would be roughly equivalent to 140 innings of Soria as a starter. Further research by Nate Silver discovered you should expect a 25 percent increase in ERA with a transition to the rotation, but Rany Jazayerli’s analysis predicts Soria’s move would translate more successfully than most.

    “I don’t think about being a starter,” Soria says. “If they need me as a starter, I’ll do it. Whatever gets me in the game, I’ll do it. Whatever they want me to do, I’ll do. If later in my career they want me to be a starter, sure, yes. But for now, I just enjoy this moment.”

    •••

    In the meantime, the Royals have a dominant closer who may only be getting better. It’s a valuable commodity, the kind that hasn’t been seen around here since, what, the pre-strike version of Jeff Montgomery? Maybe longer?

    Mariano Rivera, the guy everyone (including Hillman) compares Soria with, is pitching on a three-year, $45 million contract. Joe Nathan, Francisco Cordero, Billy Wagner, Eric Gagne and Francisco Rodriguez are also making $10 million or more per season.

    “I think he has the right stuff to be the best, honestly,” said Angels outfielder Torii Hunter. “That curveball, not too many people have that. We’ve got one of the best (Rodriguez) with that curveball. (Soria) has got the same thing. He could be as good as Frankie.”

    Hunter is actually two for six against Soria, which makes him one of only seven big leaguers with more than one hit off Soria.

    You point out this to Hunter, and he twists his face like you offered Brussels sprouts.

    “I was lucky, them two hits,” Hunter says. “I don’t like facing him at all. Two for six? Lucky. I just closed my eyes and swung. Lucky.”


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    To reach Sam Mellinger, national baseball reporter for The Star, call 816-234-4365 or send e-mail to smellinger@kcstar.com

     

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