Pitching and defense are the twin pillars on which the Dayton Moore Royals are being constructed.
Five weeks into the 2008 season, one of these areas has been strong for KC. The other has not. Can you guess which is which?
If you said pitching, congratulations. You are now entitled to one official Stat Guy abacus. (Not really.)
The Royals have committed the fewest errors in the American League (12). Their .989 fielding percentage is tied with the LA Angels for tops in the circuit. And, yet, the Royals have given up 4.43 runs per game, better than only three other AL teams. So if the defense is so good, then the problem is obviously the pitchers.
Only it’s not. The Royals have featured one of the four best pitching staffs in the AL so far this season. The defense is in the bottom three. Confused?
One of the most difficult tasks in analyzing a team’s efforts at preventing runs is to draw the line between what is pitching and what is defense. We still can’t do that with ironclad certainty, but we know a heck of a lot more than we used to.
With the Royals, you can reach the conclusions laid out here by examining fielding-independent pitching (FIP) statistics. These are based on the idea that the pitcher has ultimate control over three things: strikeouts, walks and allowing home runs. FIP calculates what a team’s ERA should be based on these fielding-independent categories. In KC’s case, their fielding-independent ERA is 3.88 — fourth best in the league.
The Royals’ half-run gap between their FIP ERA and their actual ERA (4.38) is tied with Detroit for the biggest in the league. And that extra half-run can be attributed directly to the defense.
The Royals defensive efficiency record (DER), which has been explained in this space many times, is .690. That means that 69 percent of the balls hit into play (BIP) against KC have been turned into outs. Only two teams are worse. The problem is that while the Royals’ defense has been sure-handed (as measured by fielding percentage), their fielding range (as measured by DER) has been limited.
One thing that can affect FIP is the quality of BIP allowed by the pitchers. In the Royals’ case, 19 percent of BIP have been line drives, which is just a shade worse than the league average. However, KC pitchers have induced pop flies on 14 percent of BIP — best in the league. There isn’t really anything in these data points to indicate anything other than a collective lack of range by KC’s fielders.
Another variable that can affect the evaluation of run prevention as a whole is the quality of opposition. However no adjustment for this is really needed for the Royals at this point. KC’s opponents have averaged 4.4 runs per game this season, almost equal to the league average.
This is good news for Gil Meche — partially. His FIP is 4.69 which indicates that the defensive issues have tacked more than a run to his ERA. However, Meche has a line-drive rate over 25 percent, so the number of hard-hit balls he’s allowed is contributing to his high ERA.
Royals pitchers currently rank fifth in strikeouts per game, third in fewest walks per game and are at the league average in home runs allowed per game. They’re doing their job. It’s time for the fielders to do theirs.
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