STAT GUY
If Royals are serious about contending, they must upgrade offense
By BRADFORD DOOLITTLE
The Kansas City Star
A lot of things can change in a week.
The Royals’ team ERA jumped by about 1 1/2 runs on their West Coast swing. But one thing that hasn’t changed is the performance of the offense. The fact the Royals have not scored more than six runs in a game this season is somewhat amazing.
According to baseball-reference.com, the last time the Royals went 19 games without scoring seven runs at least once was between July 15 and Aug. 3, 2005. The team record is probably safe. KC went 46 games without scoring seven during its inaugural season, 1969.
Dream with me, if you will. Let’s say that the Royals’ defense recovers from the debacle of the last few days, in which the squad fell from second in the league in defensive efficiency record all the way to 11th.
Let’s also say that with Luke Hochevar now in the majors, the rotation coalesces into a top-five unit, supported by a fine back of the bullpen in Leo Nuñez, Joakim Soria and the rest.
In other words, let’s say it looks as if the Royals have a real opportunity to contend for a postseason berth based on run prevention if only they can keep the scoreboard turning in their favor once in a while.
At their current rate, the offensive performance would sink them. Not all playoff teams are great offensive teams. But the hitters of most successful teams can generally rack up seven runs or so now and again. In today’s game, few teams stifle the opposition every time out. So to make the playoff run Royals fans crave, the boys in blue need to score more runs.
At the same time, Dayton Moore and company must figure out a way to add ‘O’ without damaging the ‘D’, which in our hypothetical, is the reason the team is in contention to begin with.
Here’s the thing: If the determination is made that the Royals are contenders provided they can improve the offense, Moore is in a unique position to improve the run-scoring totals without messing up the defense.
Why is that? Because the Royals have an easily replaceable figure in their everyday lineup in Ross Gload. That’s not a knock on Gload who would, nevertheless, serve as a key member of the bench. It’s just a knock on how he’s been used the last couple of seasons.
It’s a common and a bad idea to overrate the importance of defense at first base. Billy Butler, given regular duty, could probably do fine, even if he needed a late-inning caddie.
I’ve heard suggestions that Butler would cost the Royals 15 games or more as the regular first baseman. These comments are outlandish and wildly inaccurate. The actual worst-case figure, if Butler bombed Jason Giambi-style, would be closer to two wins.
The move of Butler to first, and the accompanying upgrade of the DH slot, would almost certainly be a sizable net winner for the team’s bottom line after the improved offense is factored in.
Uncovering run producers who aren’t expected to contribute with the glove is one of the easier tasks for a general manager. And it’s also why it’s important not to relegate a 22-year-old to the DH role. Doing so diminishes Butler’s overall value, now and in the future.
The range of player types who can fill the DH role is considerable. You can go for the Class AAA slugger in his offensive prime who hasn’t gotten a real chance because of defensive limitations. Last season, Oakland uncovered Jack Cust, who fits this description and barely cost the A’s a thing. And if you really want to make a splash, don’t forget that Frank Thomas and Barry Bonds are waiting by the phone.
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To reach Bradford Doolittle, please send e-mail to bdoolittle@kcstar.com
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