THE STAT GUY
Royals pitching and defense: What’s real and what’s not
By BRADFORD DOOLITTLE
The Kansas City Star
For a moment, let’s assume that baseball’s early results are meaningful.
They’re not — Brian Bannister’s 0.86 ERA doesn’t make him Cy Young any more than José Guillen’s .320 OPS makes him Mario Mendoza.
The Royals’ 7-5 start is great, but let’s try to contain ourselves. KC has played only three different teams entering Monday’s game at Seattle and has faced only 10 different starting pitchers.
These disclaimerlike banalities are something of a rite of passage when it comes to baseball. It’s human nature to read too much into too little, particularly when our starry-eyed observations conform to our most coveted wishes.
But one thing that’s undeniably true is that a win in April counts just as much as a win in September. So let’s look at a few general trends for you to follow in hopes that the Royals can keep those wins rolling in.
The Royals have played like a solid .500 team so far this season, perhaps a little above. But the pitching and defense have been a whole lot better than that.
The run-preventers have allowed 32 runs, or fewer than three per game. The pitchers have posted an AL-best 2.58 ERA. The fielders’ defensive efficiency record (.727) is just a shade behind the Orioles (.730) for best in the league.
Scoring across baseball is down, as it was this time last April, almost certainly because of the cold weather. This has played into the hands of the Royals’ pitchers (and those of the opposition), who have plied their trade in some pretty harsh conditions, save for three games at the Metrodome. But this only partly explains the startling stinginess of the pitching and defense.
According to the third-order standings at baseballprospectus.com, the Royals should have allowed 42 runs, based on the component statistics (hits, walks, etc.) of their opponents and the quality of those opponents.
The primary reason for the discrepancy is that the Royals have stranded 84 percent of opposing base runners so far this season, according the hardballtimes.com. That’s 12 percent better than the league average and 8 percent better than any other team in the league.
That’s not a sustainable strand rate. But the good news is that the more stable indicators in the team’s pitching line are solid: The Royals are second in strikeouts per game (6.9), walks allowed per game (2.7) and are in the upper tier when it comes to inducing ground balls (48 percent).
The latter factoid (ground balls) has been important because 13 percent of the fly balls the pitchers have allowed have left the ballpark, second most in the AL. The good news is that in this category, totals tend to migrate toward the league rate (11 percent) sooner rather than later, depending on the team’s ballpark. Let’s hope even when the Royals start playing in warmer temperatures, they won’t see a spike in home runs allowed.
As for the .727 defensive efficiency record, if maintained, that number would be the stuff of legend. It can’t last. Last year’s league average was .687, and the league leaders were at .706. So a few of those ground balls are going to start getting through to the outfield, and some of those drives are going to start plugging the gap.
The Royals can’t do a whole lot about the coming regression in DER, nor can they maintain their extreme strand rate. But they can continue to attack the hitters as well as they have so far. And the fielders can maintain their ranking, if not their rate, and make sure the DER stays as high as possible. To that end, the team is going to face a tough decision if its slick-fielding shortstop, Tony Peña, continues his one-hit-every-other-week pace.
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