Posted on Sat, Apr. 04, 2009 10:15 PM
Paying for a free-agent pitcher doesn’t usually work out for a team
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But their inability to pursue the most expensive free-agent pitchers actually could be in their best interest.
The Star consulted with a stats-oriented executive of a major-league organization to find a simple way to judge recent big-money free-agent contracts for starting pitchers.
We looked at the 47 contracts worth $5 million or more per year signed by active players, and analyzed their innings pitched, ERA and adjusted ERA for up to three years before and after the contract. Our executive said this would be a crude but effective way to make a judgment.
The results are brutal: Thirty pitchers regressed after signing, and only 13 improved. Four contracts were close enough to be judged either way. That’s a fail ratio of 2:1.
Generally, teams are better served drafting and developing their starting pitchers — and signing the ones who turn out to extensions.
| Sam Mellinger, smellinger@kcstar.com
Posted on Sat, Apr. 04, 2009 10:15 PM
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