Chiefs might draft a quarterback this year
04/28/2014 10:54 AM
04/28/2014 10:54 AM
It might just be the typical predraft pump fake, all being spewed by coaches and executives trying to dupe each other in the lead up to the NFL Draft.
But in recent weeks, it appears the talk of the teams at the top of the draft passing on top quarterbacks has intensified to the point the Chiefs may need to be prepared for at least one of them to fall to the No. 23 pick in the first round.
During a conference call on Thursday, NFL.com draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah says it's unclear where Louisville's Teddy Bridgewater, Central Florida’s Blake Bortles, Texas A's Johnny Manziel and Fresno State’s Derek Carr will go this year.
“That draft with (Christian) Ponder and (Blaine) Gabbert and (Jake) Locker, I think that kind of scared some teams (into) saying, ‘Hey, let's stay true to our board; while we need a quarterback, let's not force it,’ ” Jeremiah said.
By passing on the top quarterbacks, teams at the top of the draft would be duplicating the formula of Seattle and San Francisco, which have managed to build strong rosters around talented (and cheap) non-first-round quarterbacks. However, by taking a quarterback later in the first round, the Chiefs could essentially do the same thing.
The Chiefs have made it known that they would like to extend Alex Smith, who fared well in his first season under coach Andy Reid. At only 29 years old, still has plenty of good football left in him. However, his contract runs out after the 2014 season, and extending him will require a big-money commitment, even if it's only for a few years.
Considering the Chiefs'well-documented cap woes this offseason, not to mention the looming specter
of outside linebacker Justin Houston’s lucrative deal, it’s certainly worth noting that the team can save a boatload of money over the next few seasons by drafting Smith's replacement in the first round this year (on a cheap five-year rookie deal), letting him sit a year or two and handing him the gig when ready.
However, there’s just one small problem with that line of thinking: The Chiefs have already invested significant capital (two second-round picks) in Smith.
“Usually teams kind of swing for the fences, so to speak, in the first round,” said CBSSports.com draft analyst Rob Rang. “They go for those elite athletes, the Dontari Poe-kind of guys that have incredible upside. Then you go with safer players that fill a hole in the second or third round.
“Given the Chiefs already filled that (quarterback) hole with the trade of their second-round pick for Alex Smith and no longer have that pick, you kind of have to kind of temper your expectations of that first-round pick. You can't go for the home run, you've got to hit a good, solid single or double and make sure that first-round pick is gonna be able to come in and play immediately.”
That's why Rang said it might be more likely the Chiefs take a quarterback in the mid-to-late rounds, someone who will come cheaper than a first-round quarterback (albeit for only four years, not five). What’s more, Rang said there are several lower-rated prospects — such as San Jose State's David Fales, Georgia's Aaron Murray and South Carolina's Connor Shaw — who fit Reid's offense.
History suggests it might be time for Reid to take a quarterback. During his 14-year run in Philadelphia, the Eagles took six quarterbacks — roughly one every other year or so. In his first draft with the Chiefs last year, he didn't take one (though he did sign undrafted free agent Tyler Bray).
At this year's combine, Reid was asked if it was important to always find a young quarterback to develop on a year-to-year basis.
“Yeah, there's no other position on the field that knows more than that position,” Reid said. “It comes with the territory there, playing that position. They've got to know everything backward and forward and have the confidence to utilize all of it within a split second. That takes time. It takes time to learn the offense, it takes time to develop all the things we ask them to do.”
So rather than dwell onif the Chiefs will find another developmental quarterback to compete with Bray and fellow backup Chase Daniel, perhaps the better question is when
they will take one. Only Reid and general manager John Dorsey know for sure, though Dorsey made it clear at the combine that his belief in the best-player-available model applies to all positions, especially in the first round.
“When you build through the draft, discipline is so critical because you have to take the best player available,” Dorsey said. “You're not thinking instantaneously, but you're also thinking two years, three years down the road.”Top 10 prospects for the Chiefs
1. Teddy Bridgewater, 6-2, 214, Louisville
Three-year starter who completed 303 of 427 passes (71 percent) for 3,970 yards, 31 touchdowns and four interceptions in 2013. Is 21 years old. 9 1/4-inch hands. No 40-yard-dash time. 30-inch vertical. 113-inch broad jump.
Some have questioned his arm strength and overall lack of bulk, but he's a hard worker who is smart, poised and accurate. Good footwork.
2. Blake Bortles, 6-5, 232, Central Florida
Two-year starter who completed 259 of 382 passes (67.8 percent) for 3,581 yards, 25 touchdowns and nine interceptions in 2013. Is 22 years old. Has 9 3/8-inch hands. 4.93 40-yard dash. 32 1/2-inch vertical. 115-inch broad jump.
Has the size, mobility and intangibles to be a very good player in several different schemes. Arm strength isn't elite but gets the job done.
3. Johnny Manziel, 6-0, 207, Texas A
Two-year starter who completed 300 of 429 passes (69.9 percent) for 4,114 yards, 37 touchdowns and 13 interceptions in 2013. Is 21 years old. 9 7/8-inch hands. 4.68 40-yard dash. 31 1/2-inch vertical. 113-inch broad jump.
Undisciplined gunslinger with rare competitiveness and escapability. Quick delivery and good arm strength are enticing, but his footwork and accuracy need to improve. Has the biggest hands of the top four quarterbacks, despite height. Boom or bust.
4. Derek Carr, 6-2, 214, Fresno State
Three-year starter who completed 453 of 659 passes (68.7 percent) for 5,082 yards, 50 touchdowns and eight interceptions in 2013. Is 23 years old. 9 1/8-inch hands. 4.69 40-yard dash. 34 1/2-inch vertical. 110-inch broad jump.
The brother of 2002 draft bust David Carr has good feet, a quick release and is accurate with good intangibles. Like Bridgewater, there's concern about his lack of bulk. Mobility is only decent.
5. Jimmy Garoppolo, 6-2, 214, Eastern Illinois
Four-year starter who completed 375 of 568 passes (66 percent) for 5,050 yards, 53 touchdowns and nine interceptions in 2013. Is 22 years old. 9 1/4-inch hands. 4.97 40-yard dash. 30 1/2-inch vertical. 110-inch broad jump.
Didn't play big-time competition and needs more refinement, but he's experienced, smart, tough and athletic. Has good intangibles.
6. A.J. McCarron, 6-3, 220, Alabama
Three-year starter who completed 226 of 336 passes (67.3 percent) for 3,063 yards, 28 touchdowns and seven interceptions in 2013. Is 23 years old. 10-inch hands. 4.94 40-yard dash. 28-inch vertical. 99-inch broad jump.
Arm strength leaves something to be desired, especially on deep balls, but he's mobile and displays good accuracy. Is a confident leader who makes good decisions.
7. Tom Savage, 6-4, 228, Pittsburgh
First-year starter who completed 238 of 389 passes (61.2 percent) for 2,958 yards, 21 touchdowns and nine interceptions in 2013. Transferred twice before landing at Pitt. Is 23 years old. 9 5/8-inch hands. 4.97 40-yard dash. 27-inch vertical. 105-inch broad jump.
Strong-armed QB showed toughness behind a bad offensive line. His accuracy and consistency need to improve, but he showed flashes of being an NFL-caliber quarterback. Isn't a great athlete, but is mobile enough.
8. Aaron Murray, 6-1, 207, Georgia
Four-year starter who completed 225 of 347 passes (64.8 percent) for 3,075 yards, 26 touchdowns and nine interceptions in 2013. Is 23 years old. 9 1/8-inch hands. No 40-yard-dash time. No vertical jump. No broad jump.
Small and is coming off an ACL injury. Loads of experience, started 52 games in his collegiate career in the nation’s toughest conference. Displays only average arm strength but is a leader with quick feet and good accuracy on short-to-intermediate routes. Makes good decisions.
9. David Fales, 6-2, 212, San Jose State
Two-year starter who completed 312 of 487 passes (64.1 percent) for 4,189 yards, 33 touchdowns and 13 interceptions in 2013. Is 23 years old. 9 1/4-inch hands. 4.99 40-yard dash. 28-inch vertical. 103-inch broad jump.
Arm strength and mobility are average but is a hard worker with plus intangibles who displays good short-to-intermediate accuracy.
10. Connor Shaw, 6-0, 206, South Carolina
Three-year starter who completed 180 of 284 passes (63.4 percent) for 2,447 yards, 24 touchdowns and one interception in 2013. Is 22 years old. 9 1/4-inch hands. 4.66 40-yard dash. 34-inch vertical. 116-inch broad jump.
Only decent arm strength but is a good athlete who displays nice accuracy and mobility. Experienced, competitive player who boasted a 24-1 touchdown-to-interception radio as a senior. Must adjust to playing under center.
*All evaluations and rankings are based largely on multiple draft profiles — thanks to NFL.com, ESPN.com, CBSSports.com and DraftNasty's 2014 NFL Draft Manual — in addition to interviews with draft analysts mixed with the author’s own opinion. All measurements and testing results are from the combine.