Crunching the numbers on the Royals’ postseason chances with 10 games to go
09/19/2013 5:29 PM
09/25/2013 8:20 PM
Let’s talk percentages while the Royals cling to their postseason hopes as they head into the last 10 games of their schedule. This comes from Baseball Prospectus, which crunches numbers as well as anyone:
Prior to Thursday’s games, the Royals (who had an open date) had a 4.4 percent chance of reaching postseason in the statistical simulations, updated daily, reflected in theBaseball Prospectus Playoff Odds Report
So, yes, there’s a chance; a far better one, actually, than the million-to-one shot that Mary gave Lloyd in the 1994 film Dumb and Dumber.
It’s a better chance, too, than Prospectus gives the Yankees (3.4 percent).
Thursday’s Report put the American League’s three division leaders (Boston, Detroit and Oakland) as 100 percent locks to reach postseason, although none of the three have yet actually clinched.
The odds on the remaining AL contenders to reach postseason: Tampa Bay (78.6 percent), Texas (57.3), Cleveland (42.4), Baltimore (13.8), Royals (4.4) and New York (3.4).
The Royals were also given a 2.0 percent chance of reaching the division series (winning the wild-card game) and a 0.2 percent chance of winning the World Series.Multi-hit man
First baseman Eric Hosmer went two for five in Wednesday’s 7-2 victory over Cleveland and now leads the American League with 57 multi-hit games.
Los Angeles outfielder Mike Trout and Texas third baseman Adrian Beltre, prior to Thursday’s games, were tied for second with 55. Alex Gordon ranked eighth with 50 after going two for four in Wednesday’s victory.
St. Louis second baseman Matt Carpenter leads the majors with 61.
Hosmer has 44 multi-hit games in a 96-game span since June 6.Minor awards
Left-handed pitcher Chris Dwyer, recalled prior to Wednesday’s game, will be among those recognized Friday by the Royals as the top players and pitchers on each of the organization’s eight minor-league affiliates.
All 16 players are scheduled to take part in an autograph session from 5:30-6:15 p.m. at Gate A.
The organization’s overall minor-league player- and pitcher-of-the-year will be announced in the offseason.
•Class AAA Omaha:
INF Christian Colon (12 homers, 58 RBIs and .273 average) and Dwyer (10-11 and 3.55 ERA).
•Class AA Northwest Arkansas:
1B Matt Fields (31-87-.222) and RHP Aaron Brooks (7-7, 4.17).
OF Lane Adams (7-39-.276) and LHP Sam Selman (11-9, 3.38).
SS Raul Mondesi (7-47-.261) and RHP Christian Binford (8-7, 2.67).
•Short-season Idaho Falls:
INF Hunter Dozier (7-43-.303) and LHP Patrick Conroy (6-2, 3.30).
3B Mauricio Ramos (0-24-.322) and RHP Luis Santos (4-1, 2.25).
1B/OF Samir Duenez (0-19-.294) and RHP Pedro Fernandez (0-1, 1.82).
INF Angelo Castellano (0-25-.265) and RHP Yunior Marte (4-3, 1.71).Minor details
While the Royals saw two of their affiliates win titles — Omaha and Idaho Falls — the combined record of their eight minor-league clubs was 393-434 for a .475 winning percentage that topped only Cleveland among AL clubs.
Even Omaha finished 70-74 in the regular season before mounting a 7-1 run through postseason and winning the Pacific Coast League title and the Triple-A championship.
The other final records: Class AA Northwest Arkansas (59-81), Hi-A Wilmington (63-77), Lo-A Lexington (68-70), short-season Idaho Falls (41-35), short-season Burlington (29-38); rookie Surprise (22-33) and Dominican Academy (41-29).Looking back
It was six years ago Friday — Sept. 20, 2007 — that the Royals won for the 3,000th time in franchise history. Zack Greinke had 10 strikeouts in eight innings in a 3-0 victory over the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium.
The Royals enter Friday’s series opener against Texas with a record of 3,433-3,708 in their 45 seasons.
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