Flanagan’s NFL picks: Early Thanksgiving edition

Last week’s record straight up: 11-5

Season record straight up: 103-57

Last week’s record against the spread: 10-6

Season record against the spread: 84-72-4

Packers 27, Lions 24: This is a total trap game for the Packers. They’ve got the big Dallas game looming ahead next week, and you can talk all you want about focusing on the present game, but it’s still human nature to look ahead. The Lions have lost two straight, but traditionally, Thanksgiving Day games are their Super Bowl and they generally overachieve for one day. Tough call, but it’s still hard to pick against the better team.

Line: Packers by 3½

Cowboys 34, Jets 17: The Cowboys survived a scare against Washington last week, while the Jets snuck up on the Steelers. This will be different. The Cowboys are a more dynamic, quick-strike passing team than Pittsburgh and they should expose the Jets defense. The Cowboys’ corners can get exposed, too, but the Jets don’t have the wide-receiver weapons to do so.

Line: Cowboys by 14

Colts 24, Falcons 10: Yes, the Colts are beat up. They are thin on the offensive line. Peyton Manning has no one to throw to. But the Falcons simply quit last week and they have turmoil throughout the organization. This might be a game where Joey Harrington tries to do too much and gives the Colts a couple of easy scores.

Line: Colts by 11½

Chiefs 23, Raiders 10: With so much doubt about the Chiefs running game, this might be the game that the Chiefs turn Brodie Croyle loose. OK, so maybe they still won’t. But they have to, right? Bottom line is if Minnesota can throw up a ton of points and yards against the Raiders, the pitiful Chiefs offense should do the same, no matter who is calling the plays.

Line: Chiefs by 5½

Cardinals 31, 49ers 14: The 49ers didn’t score a touchdown last week at home against the sad Rams defense. And the Cardinals are feeling fairly good about themselves after a road win at Cincy. Shouldn’t be a problem for the Cardinals this week and, by the way, the Cards can suddenly start thinking playoffs with a win.

Line: Cards by 10½

Bears 17, Broncos 14: There are people suddenly jumping on the Broncos’ bandwagon. I’m not one of them. The Titans played awful in all phases last week and still were in the game against Denver. This week, look for the Bears to rise up at home and for Rex Grossman to benefit from a sound running game.

Line: Bears by 2½

Titans 29, Bengals 19: I picked a crazy score because this will be a crazy game. Weird bounces, safeties, onside kicks, fake punts. I can see it all here. The Bengals are a mess and the Titans are too well-coached to lay back-to-back eggs. Vince Young and the Titans offense should have a field day.

Line: Pick ’em

Browns 24, Texans 21: This was almost my upset special of the week. The Texans are a tough bunch and getting better. Then again, so are the Browns. This will be one of the better games of the week with each team needing a win desperately. Wouldn’t be shocked if the Texans rose up here.

Line: Browns by 3½

Jags 27, Bills 17: The Bills are no doubt still dazed from the butt-whipping that New England put on them in Buffalo. That kind of shellacking puts doubt in the minds of every player, and there will be a hangover effect as the Bills go to Jacksonville. The Jags, meanwhile, are playing pretty confidently right now.

Line: Jags by 7½

Giants 20, Vikings 12: The Giants, perhaps still miffed by a subpar performance the previous week against Dallas, didn’t play well at Detroit last week but still survived. The Vikings are not exactly road warriors. Could be a Giants romp.

Line: Giants by 7

Patriots 34, Eagles 10: At this writing, no one was sure about Donovan McNabb’s availability. Without him, the Eagles may not score. Even with him, a banged up McNabb probably won’t be able to do much. What all this means is that the Pats are likely to put up another big number.

Line: Pats by 22

Chargers 17, Ravens 6: The Chargers can’t afford to slip up, even though they play in the AFC Worst. The Ravens are coming off a crushing home loss to Cleveland, and have to travel across the country. The guess here is that the Chargers will do just enough to win and that the Ravens will struggle to move the ball.

Line: Chargers by 9½

Saints 20, Panthers 14: Believe me, it’s with great pain that I take the Saints, who seem to burn me every week, one way or the other. They simply can’t be trusted. But then again, it’s hard to take a shot with the Panthers and a 50-year-old quarterback, even at home. The Saints simply have to bounce back, right?

Line: Saints by 3

Rams 27, Seahawks 26: OK, so here’s my upset special. The Rams, winners of two straight, might actually be feeling good enough to work some magic at home against a superior opponent, though I don’t consider the Seahawks all that superior. There will be points scored in this one, so my predicted score could be a little low.

Line: Seahawks by 3

Bucs 14, Washington 9: If Washington wasn’t so banged up in the secondary, I’d take them in a road upset. But its secondary couldn’t cover you or me right now. These teams are pretty evenly matched but Tampa has some momentum, Washington doesn’t.

Line: Bucs by 3

Steelers 30, Dolphins 3: I can’t imagine a scenario where the Dolphins reach the end zone against a pretty upset Pittsburgh team that is still scratching its head over the loss to the Jets. Pittsburgh is likely to put on a show for the Monday night crowd.

Line: Pittsburgh by 16