<table> </table> Year after year, through bad times and worse times, against logic and against the odds, I have picked the Kansas City Royals to win the American League Central. I have done this with my heart; baseball fans should always have hope when winter turns to spring. That&#8217;s just one of those things I believe, like I believe that airplane seats should not be allowed to recline on short flights, like I believe that drivers who slow down to look at accidents should have their licenses suspended for the rest of the day, like I believe that children are our future.</p><p>The &#8220;Royals will win&#8221; column has inspired a lot of reaction through the years, some of it positive but much of it very negative. The positive responses have generally been short and simple: &#8220;Thank you for giving us Royals fans hope&#8221; or &#8220;I know the Royals have been terrible, but I&#8217;m a believer too!&#8221;</p><p>The negative responses tend to be a bit longer and more intense, like this one I have saved:</p><p>&#8220;You have to be the single dumbest person who ever lived. Seriously. I have no idea how you keep your job. Anyone who would think the Royals are going to win anything has to be clinically insane. It&#8217;s obvious they have no pitching ...&#8221;</p><p>And it goes on from there.</p><p>Well, this year &#8212; for the first time in a dozen years or so &#8212; I have not written the &#8220;Royals will win&#8221; column. Many people have written in and wondered about that. Have I finally lost hope? Have I allowed the naysayers to break me? Have I given up on this silly gimmick?</p><p>No. It&#8217;s something else this year.</p><p>I think the Royals really and truly might win the American League Central this year.</p><p>&#8226; &#8226; &#8226;</p><p>Of course, a lot has to go right. That&#8217;s the part of baseball that nobody can predict. St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa stood in the outfield during spring training this year, and he said this: &#8220;Let&#8217;s say that you&#8217;re the most gifted analyst in the world. You couldn&#8217;t right now say who is going to win each division or who is going to go to the divisional playoffs, the league championship series, the World Series. So, that intrigue, that potential to have a bunch of guys who have the same uniform and get them to pull together as a team ...&#8221;</p><p>He&#8217;s right, of course. That&#8217;s the intrigue of baseball. The most talented teams don&#8217;t always win. The team that looks great on April 1 does not always look even average on July 4. Pitchers break down. Hitters go into inexplicable slumps. Age saps a player&#8217;s skills at the most inconvenient times.</p><p>And the Royals are a team that needs things to go right. If starters Zack Greinke or Gil Meche get hurt, the Royals are through. If closer Joakim Soria slumps, they are through. If the Royals and hitting coach Kevin Seitzer cannot coax a few more runs from their lineup, they are through. If outfielder Jos&#233; Guillen takes another ride aboard the crazy train, they are through. If manager Trey Hillman does not learn some lessons from his bumpy first year, they are through.</p><p>But, this time around, things could go right. The big question in this baseball section of questions is: Why believe now? It&#8217;s a good question. The Royals have been terrible for a long time. They have been cheap, and they have been dumb, and they have been unlucky, and they have been comically bad. They have given Kansas City brief bursts of sunshine &#8212; like the 2003 season when they unexpectedly contended into September &#8212; but mostly they have fallen into manholes and slipped on banana peels and created false hope.