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•Six contests and 217 delegates are still to be fought over by June 3.
The line? Clinton is expected to easily win West Virginia and Kentucky, with lots of older, white middle-class voters. Oregon is better Obama territory. Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota come after that.
The bottom line: She needs to win a highly unlikely three-fourths of the remaining delegates.
•The Democratic Rules Committee will meet May 31 on unseated Michigan and Florida, which fell afoul of the rules by voting early.
The line? Clinton says she won 73 delegates in Michigan, leaving Obama, who wasn’t even on the ballot, with no more than 55. Obama’s camp wants a 64-64 split, but proposed compromises might give her a net gain of 10. Similarly, Obama calls for an even split of 185 Floridians, but he got only a third of the vote there to Clinton’s half.
The bottom line: Clinton has more known allies on the rules committee than Obama.
•If nothing is resolved, the “Flor-igan” question goes to the Convention Credentials Committee, likely to meet in the summer.
The line? The two states are too crucial in November to be left out. Clinton would see some gains.
The bottom line: Any split of delegates won’t be enough, but a favorable call could boost her large-Blue-state electability argument. North Carolina hurt her popular vote argument.
•About 265 of the total 795 superdelegates, such as Rep. Dennis Moore of Kansas, are still undecided or undeclared.
The line? Obama has been relentlessly gaining on Clinton’s lead in supers. Since Tuesday, four joined him; Clinton gained two, but lost one from her column to him.
The bottom line: Clinton allies stress supers don’t have to follow their state majorities; Obama allies say they should. If they don’t, the party may rupture.
•The Democrats gather Aug. 25 for their Denver convention.
The line? Obama is expected to have the needed 2,025 majority by then.
The bottom line: It’s been a year of surprises.
| Candidate | Pledged | Super | Total | Needs | ||||
| Obama | 1587.5 | 259 | 1846.5 | 178.5 | ||||
| Clinton | 1425 | 271 | 1696 | 329 |
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