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The race may have a long way to run yet. We all know that. But signs increasingly are emerging that Barack Obama’s recent run has boosted his prospects mightily.
In a contest that has simply refused to hand over the big mo to either contender, momentum finally appears to be shifting steadily, and perhaps unalterably, toward Obama.
One clear sign of just where the race stands came Friday with the latest numbers from the Iowa Electronic Markets. (Yes, there is such a thing and, yes, you can wager real money on it.)
The markets rated Obama as 68 percent likely to win the nomination, while Hillary Clinton stood at 31 percent.
A month ago, Clinton stood at 55 percent, Obama at 42.
He is on a roll, and no one denies it. Eight straight primary or caucus wins, with a possible ninth and 10th looming Tuesday in Wisconsin and Hawaii.
Over the last week, Obama has gained 11 superdelegates, Clinton one. His sweep of the Chesapeake primaries gave Obama an undisputed delegate lead for the first time.
As of Friday, Obama led 1,116 to 985, according to MSNBC. Others count differently, but he’s clearly ahead.
Also on Friday, Obama picked up the backing of the 1.9 million-member Service Employees International Union, his second endorsement in as many days from large labor organizations.
Last week saw a huge shift by Rep. John Lewis of Georgia, a prominent Clinton backer and civil rights pioneer. He suggested that he might now back Obama.
Even Rep. Emanuel Cleaver of Kansas City, a stalwart Clinton backer, is affected. He’s sticking with her, for now.
Last week he was asked: Would you stand in the way of a black becoming president if it came down to the last day and you were the last superdelegate left standing?
“I’d have to think about it,” Cleaver said.
The tide is shifting in a race that has simply defied lasting shifts. Obama kicked up a big wave by winning Iowa, then saw it dissipate in New Hampshire. Clinton built a wave in the Northeast by winning her big home state of New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts, then saw it wiped out by Obama wins in Connecticut and Delaware.
And on and on it has gone. Waves build, then crash, contrary to the way it has been in American politics for years.
But today, things feel differently.
No question the race could still wind up at the Democratic National Convention in August, awaiting an 11th-hour verdict from the nation’s superdelegates. The math suggests that neither candidate can claim the mantle before the convention, given the party’s inane proportional delegate rules. They make it impossible for candidates in close races to ever pull away, no matter how many states they win.
But that’s a mathematical analysis. The common-sense analysis suggests that Democrats can’t afford to let this thing run too far.
The longer it goes, the more bitter it gets.
“Speeches don’t put food on the table,” Clinton said last week. “Speeches don’t fill up your tank. Speeches don’t fill your prescriptions. … My opponent makes speeches. I offer solutions.”
See?
If this goes on too long, the debate over whether to seat delegates from Michigan and Florida, two states that broke party rules by holding early contests, looms larger. There’s no clear answer on what to do there.
If you’re a Democrat, you don’t want that fight to happen. Not with John McCain waiting in the wings — the same McCain who leads in some national polls.
The analysis that makes the most sense came from Clinton loyalist James Carville, who looked ahead last week to two big contests in March.
“If she loses either Texas or Ohio,” Carville said, “this thing is done.”
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