See Jerry Moran run.See Jerry Moran run fast.See Jerry Moran build a big lead in the polls and a big, big lead in fundraising.Watch Todd Tiahrt sweat.That’s the state of Kansas’ U.S. Senate race as 2009 winds down.At some point, a fair question becomes: Can Tiahrt still do it? Is there enough in the tank for the congressman from Wichita to pull off a win over Moran in next year’s GOP primary? Winning that intraparty skirmish is an especially valuable prize this time around because the winner may just automatically become the winner in November. Democrats have no candidate and, as of last week, absolutely zero prospects for landing anyone of stature.The whispering among some members of the Kansas political class last week centered on whether Tiahrt would even remain in a race that now tilts decidedly uphill.But Tiahrt’s camp is expressing a steely resolve to not only stick it out, but also whip Moran down the home stretch.Aides lay claim to a not-so-secret weapon — legions of die-hard conservatives who, they say, prefer the Wichita congressman to the Hays congressman. Those voters may not show up in polls because they don’t trust them enough to agree to be surveyed. But history shows they are as reliable as heat on a summer day when it comes to turning out to vote in primary elections that most folks care little about.“I will tell you, it’s not a double-digits race,” Tiahrt aide Chuck Knapp said of the polls. “I know it’s not.” Still, gut feelings are one thing, supposedly scientific polls something else. In the one public poll that’s been released, by SurveyUSA, Moran had vaulted to a 43-27 percent lead as of early October, with 30 percent still undecided.The result showed decided movement toward Moran. In April, the finding was a virtual deadlock — 39-35 Moran, a set of numbers well within the poll’s margin of error.The split on the fundraising front was even more daunting for Tiahrt. As of Sept. 30, he had $1.4 million in his campaign account, compared with Moran’s $3.5 million.Tiahrt says pundits like me are looking at the “easy” markers. “What you don’t know is what I’m doing on the ground,” he said, a reference to the more covert, grass-roots, get-out-the-vote effort that propelled Barack Obama so effectively a year ago.Moran’s camp doesn’t buy the notion that Tiahrt will get all the conservatives. In fact, even some Tiahrt supporters acknowledge little more than a penny’s worth of difference between the two on matters of deep concern to the right.“Frankly, they are pretty close on the issues,” said Kansas Rep. Arlen Siegfreid, an Olathe Republican.Case in point: The conservative Family Research Council gave Moran a 100 percent score in 2008. Tiahrt got the same number. The American Conservative Union gave Moran a 92 score in 2008, Tiahrt a 91.Still, some Republicans insist there are distinctions to be made. The trusted Almanac of American Politics describes Moran’s voting record as moderate, Tiahrt’s as conservative.The campaign ahead is sure to clarify the distinctions.But Tiahrt had better start running real fast, real soon.••• We poke fun a lot here about the woeful state of the Kansas Democratic Party.But for the record, let’s note that the party has recruited two top-line contenders for Congress next year: Kansas Sen. Laura Kelly of Topeka in the state’s 2nd District, and Kansas Rep. Raj Goyle of Wichita for the 4th District seat Tiahrt is vacating.••• The recent House vote on health care reform said one thing very clearly: Rep. Ike Skelton, a 17-term Missouri Democrat, is scared silly.Rep. Dennis Moore, a six-term Democrat who has spent years running for his political life, is feeling a little more confident.Almost inexplicably for a veteran member in House leadership, Skelton voted no on his party’s chief domestic priority. Moore supported it.Two Republicans are running against Skelton. One Republican is running against Moore.••• “We don’t know who’s at the wheel — the captain or the first mate.” — Mike Burke, announcing his campaign for Kansas City mayor last week in a reference to incumbent Mark Funkhouser and his wife, Gloria Squitiro.

Posted on Sat, Nov. 14, 2009 10:15 PM

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In Senate race, can Tiahrt catch Moran?

STEVE KRASKE COMMENTARY

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See Jerry Moran run.

See Jerry Moran run fast.

See Jerry Moran build a big lead in the polls and a big, big lead in fundraising.

Watch Todd Tiahrt sweat.

That’s the state of Kansas’ U.S. Senate race as 2009 winds down.

At some point, a fair question becomes: Can Tiahrt still do it? Is there enough in the tank for the congressman from Wichita to pull off a win over Moran in next year’s GOP primary?

Winning that intraparty skirmish is an especially valuable prize this time around because the winner may just automatically become the winner in November. Democrats have no candidate and, as of last week, absolutely zero prospects for landing anyone of stature.

The whispering among some members of the Kansas political class last week centered on whether Tiahrt would even remain in a race that now tilts decidedly uphill.

But Tiahrt’s camp is expressing a steely resolve to not only stick it out, but also whip Moran down the home stretch.

Aides lay claim to a not-so-secret weapon — legions of die-hard conservatives who, they say, prefer the Wichita congressman to the Hays congressman. Those voters may not show up in polls because they don’t trust them enough to agree to be surveyed.

But history shows they are as reliable as heat on a summer day when it comes to turning out to vote in primary elections that most folks care little about.

“I will tell you, it’s not a double-digits race,” Tiahrt aide Chuck Knapp said of the polls. “I know it’s not.”

Still, gut feelings are one thing, supposedly scientific polls something else. In the one public poll that’s been released, by SurveyUSA, Moran had vaulted to a 43-27 percent lead as of early October, with 30 percent still undecided.

The result showed decided movement toward Moran. In April, the finding was a virtual deadlock — 39-35 Moran, a set of numbers well within the poll’s margin of error.

The split on the fundraising front was even more daunting for Tiahrt. As of Sept. 30, he had $1.4 million in his campaign account, compared with Moran’s $3.5 million.

Tiahrt says pundits like me are looking at the “easy” markers.

“What you don’t know is what I’m doing on the ground,” he said, a reference to the more covert, grass-roots, get-out-the-vote effort that propelled Barack Obama so effectively a year ago.

Moran’s camp doesn’t buy the notion that Tiahrt will get all the conservatives. In fact, even some Tiahrt supporters acknowledge little more than a penny’s worth of difference between the two on matters of deep concern to the right.

“Frankly, they are pretty close on the issues,” said Kansas Rep. Arlen Siegfreid, an Olathe Republican.

Case in point: The conservative Family Research Council gave Moran a 100 percent score in 2008. Tiahrt got the same number. The American Conservative Union gave Moran a 92 score in 2008, Tiahrt a 91.

Still, some Republicans insist there are distinctions to be made. The trusted Almanac of American Politics describes Moran’s voting record as moderate, Tiahrt’s as conservative.

The campaign ahead is sure to clarify the distinctions.

But Tiahrt had better start running real fast, real soon.

•••

We poke fun a lot here about the woeful state of the Kansas Democratic Party.

But for the record, let’s note that the party has recruited two top-line contenders for Congress next year: Kansas Sen. Laura Kelly of Topeka in the state’s 2nd District, and Kansas Rep. Raj Goyle of Wichita for the 4th District seat Tiahrt is vacating.

•••

The recent House vote on health care reform said one thing very clearly: Rep. Ike Skelton, a 17-term Missouri Democrat, is scared silly.

Rep. Dennis Moore, a six-term Democrat who has spent years running for his political life, is feeling a little more confident.

Almost inexplicably for a veteran member in House leadership, Skelton voted no on his party’s chief domestic priority. Moore supported it.

Two Republicans are running against Skelton. One Republican is running against Moore.

•••

“We don’t know who’s at the wheel — the captain or the first mate.” — Mike Burke, announcing his campaign for Kansas City mayor last week in a reference to incumbent Mark Funkhouser and his wife, Gloria Squitiro.

To reach Steve Kraske, call 816-234-4312 or send e-mail to skraske@kcstar.com.

Posted on Sat, Nov. 14, 2009 10:15 PM

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