Otherwise, a close political ally like state Sen. Karin Brownlee wouldn’t have been so shocked when yours truly called Monday night for a comment.
“No!” Brownlee said in disbelief when I told her that Kline had reversed himself and would, indeed, be running for Johnson County district attorney.
“He didn’t!” she said. “I waited to endorse Steve until after Phill announced he was not running.”
Steve is Steve Howe, the career prosecutor whom the Republican establishment is lined up behind, conservatives and moderates both. The unity candidate who supposedly was going to replace Kline when the latter finished his two-year stint as a placeholder to finish out Paul Morrison’s term.
For Howe, endorsements were lined up. Big ones, including both U.S. senators from Kansas.
Brownlee and many others in the GOP agreed to serve on Howe’s campaign committee. Any other year, she’d have been in Kline’s corner. They’re friends, ideological soul mates, served in the Legislature together in the 1990s.
But supposedly he wasn’t running. And now?
“I think Phill has complicated things,” Brownlee said.
“I would advise him to not to run for DA. I think it’s going back on what he said.”
Back, schmack. Kline’s running, and suddenly there’s a three-way struggle in what has traditionally been a two-way battle within the party between moderates and conservatives.
The new third faction is made up of conservatives like Brownlee who feel duped, if not betrayed, by Kline and his selfish ambitions.
How that three-way plays out, no one can be sure. But it makes for a more interesting primary season than planned.
Before Kline’s announcement, we were expecting a dull summer on the Kansas side. For once, there were no divisive intraparty struggles on tap among the more high-profile races.
In the DA’s contest, it was supposed to shake out like this:
Howe and Democratic challenger Rick Guinn would clear the primaries unopposed. In the general, the battle would be between two seasoned prosecutors, both with little political experience and little baggage, other than that they both worked for Paul Morrison when he was the DA.
Which meant their biggest negatives canceled each other out.
Advantage: Howe as the Republican running in heavily Republican Johnson County.
Then along comes Kline to muck it up.
Oh, it’ll be entertaining, for sure. There’ll be questions about his residency. Is it true what critics say about the allegedly poor performance of the DA’s office under his leadership?
How about all the speeches he gives to anti-abortion groups?
In other words, the campaign will be all about Phill Kline through the primary and the general, should he knock off Howe.
My guess is, he does get the party’s nomination. The right-to-life movement adores Kline and will work harder than ever to get out the vote in the low-turnout August primary.
However, two variables could foul up my prediction.
One: So many mainstream voters despise Kline that a lot of Democrats and independents could change party affiliation and vote in the GOP primary.
Two: Even many of Kline’s former supporters will cast their ballots against him in the primary for putting himself ahead of the party to remain in the spotlight a few months longer.
And that’s what it would amount to: a few months.
Because should he win the primary, I’m betting he’d suffer a humiliating defeat in November equal to or worse than the trouncing he got from Morrison in JoCo during the 2006 state attorney general’s race.
Kline probably knows that, too. But for someone with the kind of martyr complex he’s developed over the years, there’s a kind of victory even in defeat.
More than 470 candidates signed up to run for everything from the U.S. Senate down to local magistrate. Party primary elections will be Aug. 5. Winners then advance to the November general election. Independents and third-party candidates can still file for election until August.
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