What sort of season lies just ahead?</p><p> In this age of the so-called greenhouse effect, will we be planning picnics in January? Will jonquils thrust up their new leaf blades and songbirds start nesting in February?</p><p> NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, predicts a balmier than normal winter in the middle U.S. due to the El Nino effect &mdash; a periodic change in climate patterns caused by the warming of surface currents in the South Pacific.</p><p> That&rsquo;s the scientists&rsquo; take on the matter. The Farmers&rsquo; Almanac disagrees, and its forecast for our region is supported by amateur weather watchers&rsquo; bloggings from the field.</p><p> One observer reports seeing large numbers of woolly bear caterpillars with only thin bands of brown across their middles &mdash; a &ldquo;sure&rdquo; indicator, at least to true believers, of a fierce season to come.</p><p> Another finds meaning in an uncommonly bountiful crop of acorns, nature&rsquo;s timely gift to squirrels who&rsquo;ll need extra grub to make it through.</p><p> Look on the Internet and you&rsquo;ll find no end to these portents.</p><p> Great flights of migratory fowl passing southbound, earlier than in remembered years&ensp;&hellip;</p><p> Bugs seen marching in straight lines, instead of meandering&ensp;&hellip;</p><p> Autumn spiders spinning larger, stouter webs than usual&ensp;&hellip;</p><p> Crickets making their way into houses in greater numbers than ever seen before&ensp;&hellip;</p><p> All of these signs may well be true. But as a means of knowing what the future holds, they have the unmistakable odor of folk wisdom &mdash; a kinder term than superstition.</p><p> So I&rsquo;ll go with NOAA and what the scientists say, and expect a warmer, wetter winter. Though, truth be told, I&rsquo;ll happily take it as it comes.</p><p> I recall one February 40-some years ago making a three-day hike alone through a snow-covered Ozark woodland, the cloudless days brilliant, the nighttime temperatures plunging to minus 7 degrees. Also, 20 years after that, a cookout with our daughters and a family of friends on a 70-degree February evening, and waking the next morning to 12 below zero.</p><p> Those are the sorts of extremes that mark the midland season. And I remember each with equal pleasure. But in saying that, I know I speak from the perspective of safety, of one who sleeps warm in a bed to call my own. The few times I have experienced serious cold, it was only for adventure and by choice.</p><p> Although dependable numbers cannot be known, it has been estimated that 3.5 million people in this country are homeless, more than 1.3 million of them children and 200,000 veterans. For these, the less fortunate in America, the weather matters greatly. And if, notwithstanding the scientists&rsquo; warmer forecast, winter closes its bitter fist around them, their pain will be our collective shame.