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Posted on Wed, Sep. 16, 2009 10:15 PM
Emmys: Who will win? Who will watch?
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E.F. Schumacher, were he still around and gave two hoots about TV, might have observed that last year’s Emmy Awards were a tribute to his axiom that small is beautiful.
A show watched by barely a million people then, “Mad Men,” was chosen the best drama series on television. Two other low-rated cable dramas, “Breaking Bad” and “Damages,” captured top acting prizes. “30 Rock” won again for comedy, proving that you don’t have to be popular anymore to hold down a spot on NBC’s Thursday night lineup.
Even the audience for last year’s Emmy broadcast was small: Just 13 million tuned in, fewer people than watch a typical hour of “The Mentalist.”
The only reason I have to think that things might be different when the television academy hands out its biggest honors, starting at 7 p.m. Sunday on KCTV, is that the Emmys are being broadcast by CBS. Now there’s a network that still knows how to attract a crowd sizable enough to fill the big tent.
Neil Patrick Harris is your affable host. I will have the complete postmortem in Monday’s FYI. Until then, some predictions:
•Best comedy series: Nomination bloat isn’t just afflicting the Oscars. Seven shows are up for comedy’s top prize, up from five last year. Other categories have routinely expanded to a half-dozen nominees. This does seem to have helped the little guy: Last year, Bryan Cranston took home an Emmy in a six-person field for “Breaking Bad,” and “Mad Men” beat out five challengers. In theory that might help the delightful HBO musical comedy “Flight of the Conchords,” but NBC’s “30 Rock” seems to have cast a spell over academy members (it led all shows this year with 22 nominations).
•Lead actor, comedy: One of the most conservative categories of the night has a history of repeat winners (remember John Lithgow for “3rd Rock from the Sun”?). I look for Alex Baldwin, aka “30 Rock’s” Jack Donaghy, to continue that unproud tradition.
•Lead actress, comedy: Tina Fey already has one Emmy this year, for a guest role as Sarah Palin on “SNL” given out at last weekend’s Creative Arts ceremonies. She could be upset by Toni Collette, who was spectacular as the multiple-personality gal in “United States of Tara.”
•Lead actor, drama: Cranston seems fated to go the way of Michael Chiklis in “The Shield,” one and done. Maybe it’s Jon Hamm’s turn to win as Don Draper in “Mad Men.” But HBO’s “In Treatment” got a lot of looks during its second season, which could help the chances of (the more deserving, frankly) Gabriel Byrne. And my look-alike Hugh Laurie, who has never won for “House,” is due.
•Best drama series: “Mad Men” should repeat, but the field here as well has been expanded to seven, which seemingly aids “Dexter” and “Damages.”
•Miniseries: “Generation Kill” versus “Little Dorrit.” This will be a mercy killing, as “Gen Kill” producers David Simon and Ed Burns collect the Emmys they were so unjustly denied all those years on “The Wire.”
•Reality-competition: I hate to say it, but if “The Amazing Race” wins again, this will be a sure sign that Emmy voters aren’t taking this category seriously. Another show simply has to win or all those wins for “Amazing” will be diminished.
Posted on Wed, Sep. 16, 2009 10:15 PM
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