Posted on Fri, Nov. 13, 2009 12:05 PM
Hidden points, trust are top factors for playoff push
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We’re officially in the stretch run for the playoffs and the goal now is not to win the championship. Instead, the goal is to make the playoffs and let the chips fall where they may.
My good friend Scott Pianowski of Yahoo! Sports coined that phrase years ago and it rings true every season.
To win a championship, you need everything to fall in place because the best regular season team doesn’t always come out on top in league playoffs. It takes more than sitting on a roster full of elite players, as some of these players could be resting when Super Bowls are played.
Luck, good or bad, has a say in what happens down the stretch. However, skill comes into play by minimizing the luck factor and owners accomplish this by analyzing trends and exploitable schedules.
Four factors to consider in the coming weeks when making lineup and roster decisions include:
Find the hidden points
Kickers and defenses are normally an afterthought during August drafts, but have importance in the critical Weeks 14-16.
With kickers, November signals falling leaves will soon be replaced by snow or freezing rain at some NFL venues. Teams accustomed to playing in adverse weather won’t be affected as much as indoor and warm weather teams.
Scan the waiver wire for an indoor kicker if you lack an elite option and stash him on the bench. An example is New Orleans Saints kicker John Carney, who has two things going for him.
The first is he’s obviously with a dome team. The second is New Orleans is indoors in Weeks 14-16 against the Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Cowboys and then a home game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Defensively, the Seattle Seahawks last week proved a major point – when in doubt, always pick on the Detroit Lions. Savvy owners who plucked Seattle off the waiver wire for this specific matchup were rewarded with 21 points in a many scoring formats.
Targeting horrible offenses during the stretch run is a recipe for success. In the coming weeks, stash away any available defense playing the Cleveland Browns, Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders and Washington Redskins in Weeks 14-16.
You don’t have to use these defenses, but blocking the competition from using them against you is sound strategy.
Ironically, the Browns play the Chiefs in Week 15 and Raiders in Week 16. Using one of these teams requires a leap of faith and it boils down to the next topic.
The Trust Factor
OK, so you lack an elite scoring defense and are intrigued with the Browns playing the Chiefs or Raiders. Who do you take if you’re looking to maximize a matchup in Week 15 or 16?
The choice is obvious in Week 15 and it should be the Chiefs.
Points allowed, sacks and turnovers are king when it comes to a fantasy defense. Considering the Browns have five offensive scores through Week 9 and quarterback Brady Quinn returns under center this week, the situation in Cleveland won’t get better. I trust the Chiefs to get it done at Arrowhead Stadium.
However, lean to the Browns at home in Week 16, as Raiders quarterback JaMarcus Russell is a turnover and pick-six waiting to happen.
Trust becomes a major factor during the stretch run not just with defense, but with your skill players.
Using three aging and once elite running backs as examples, there’s no way you can have faith in Brian Westbrook, LaDainian Tomlinson or Clinton Portis to get you to the playoffs, much less anchor a championship.
All have been dinged up this season and haven’t produced a game owners once enjoyed.
Don’t fall in love with the name, as this is not 2006.



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