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Posted on Sun, Apr. 20, 2008 07:50 AM
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Hillary leads in Pennsylvania, including among bowlers, gun owners

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Hillary Clinton leads among bowlers, gun owners and hunters in Pennsylvania, a blue-collar trifecta that is helping her hold an edge over rival Barack Obama heading into Tuesday's pivotal primary there.

The New York senator leads by solid margins in all three slices of working-class Pennsylvania - the political battleground where the two Democrats have waged war for control of the state, according to a new poll conducted for McClatchy Newspapers, MSNBC and the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

The one group where she does not have a solid lead is among beer drinkers; they split evenly between her and the Illinois senator.

Overall, Clinton leads Obama by a margin of 48-43 percent, with 8 percent still undecided. The telelphone survey of 635 likely Pennsylvania voters was taken April 17-18 and had an error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

"Clinton leads in Pennsylvania," said Brad Coker, the managing partner for Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, which conducted the poll.

"However, the lead doesn't indicate she's going to win by a large enough margin to make a serious impact on Obama's overall delegate lead."

Clinton leads among women, whites, Roman Catholics and Jews, voters older than 35, those looking for experience and those who rank Iraq, the economy or health care their top issues.

She also leads in central and rural Pennsylvania as well as the Pittsburgh area.

"She's a woman, that's the main reason," said Catherine Nichols, a retired receptionist from New Providence, explaining why she prefers Clinton. "And she has the experience from being in the White House for so many years."

Obama leads among blacks, voters younger than 35, Protestants, and those looking for change or honesty.

He leads in the Philadelphia area.

"I'm getting tired of the same old thing over and over. It's time for a change," said William Allen, a retiree from Philadelphia. "He just has a different way of thinking and bringing people together."

Despite Obama's solid support in some areas, Coker said that Pennsylvania's demographics make it difficult for him to win, given his inability to draw more support from whites, the working class, or older voters. Obama pulled just 33 percent of the white vote, but 83 percent of the black vote.

"I would be surprised if Obama won Pennsylvania," Coker said. "There are not enough African-American and young voters. It's one of the older states."

Ever since the two clashed in Ohio in early March - where she won with heavy support from the white working class - the two candidates have sparred over that key voting bloc in Pennsylvania.

Their campaign's been marked by sharp disagreements over his comments claiming that small-town Pennsylvanians cling to religion and guns out of bitterness over their economic anxiety, as well as inflammatory sermons by Obama's pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

They've also offered dueling photo opportunities, with Obama bowling on camera, and Clinton downing a shot of whiskey and a beer.

Many voters dismissed such efforts as silly or superficial - or said they had the opposite effect than the campaigns intended.

Most saw clips of Obama bowling, for example, and several noted that he was bad at it.

"I saw the gutter ball. Why make an idiot of yourself?" said John Ferko, a retired postal worker from Phoenixville, Pa., who supports Clinton.

Indeed, Clinton seems to have won the better part of the culture clash, leading among hunters by a margin of 56-31 percent, among bowlers by 54-33 percent, and among gun owners by 53-28 percent.

McClatchy Newspapers 2008

Posted on Sun, Apr. 20, 2008 07:50 AM
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