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Even in his home state of Illinois, Obama could barely squeeze a few votes past Clinton among Latinos, besting her by one slim percentage point, 50 percent to her 49.
So what gives? Does this indicate that Latinos en masse will not support a black president? I don’t believe that is true.
Beware of drawing facile conclusions that Latinos are lining up “against” a black candidate. Voting results so far are likely more about familiarity than racial antipathy. With Hillary, many Latinos envision Bill — a slight variation on a comfortable political choice.
Yet no doubt some ethnic and racial attitudes are also at play. And to ignore them would be folly — not just now but also after the Democratic candidate is nominated. Others, you may bet, are scheming to exploit this apparent rift for political gain. What would Machiavelli do? Pit blacks and Latinos against each other.
The pertinent question becomes: Will Latinos feel as much affinity for a black candidate as they would for a white one?
If Obama succeeds in the Democratic race, as I suspect he will, the Latino vote will be critical to him in the general election. He’s going to need to court and closely guard it. To win, some analysts believe McCain would need to capture 40 percent of the Hispanic vote. And if Latinos can be riled up against Obama, the result could be a bleeding off of enough votes to edge McCain toward victory.
This is the first presidential race where the dynamics of minority politics have clearly shifted. Latinos are the largest minority group in the nation. And despite all the talk of lumping everyone together in a giant tent labeled “people of color,” most Latinos are white by race.
That fact alone often provides a bedrock of suspicion upon which much misunderstanding between the two groups is built, and exploited.
It must be said: the issues — what Clinton, Obama and McCain actually stand for — do matter to Latinos, especially to more savvy voters. But, as politicians know, comfort level with the candidate also has a huge influence on voting. That’s true of people of all races.
Another thing Democratic strategists need to keep in mind: immigrants of all backgrounds have long shown a tendency to identify with the majority group. It’s a response to assimilation pressures. People who call for Latino immigrants to blend more quickly into U.S. culture aren’t arguing for Latinos to assimilate themselves into black culture. No, the call is for the King’s English to be spoken, not Spanglish or Ebonics.
If candidate Obama wants to attract — or keep — Latino votes, he’d better be careful about how he goes negative on Clinton. Latino voters are loyal, and mudslinging is likely to bind them to her more strongly.
Obama also needs to recognize the diversity within the U.S. Latino community, and use his intellect and eloquence to speak to each segment, recognizing the differences, say, between a fifth-generation Mexican-American and a Venezuelan. He needs to move beyond the “Si se puede” sloganeering. It only appeals to a certain subset of Latinos.
He should recognize that Latinos are numerically the largest minority group, but that they are not as well organized or politically powerful as blacks. There is a real danger that these groups will come into conflict, politically. Obama needs to reassure Latinos that he won’t allow that to happen. He needs to preach the power of blacks and Latinos working together.
Finally, Obama needs to speak directly to issues that have an effect on Latinos. These include home ownership, small business development, funding for English-language instruction and blocking efforts to repeal birthright citizenship. Obama needs to show Latinos he will stand with them, and for them, even when they are not in the room.
Latino voters’ loyalty is Obama’s to win. It’s time for him to seek it.
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