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I thought the troop surge would only marginally improve the situation in Iraq by the end of 2007. Instead, the turnaround has been rapid and undeniable.
I predicted terrorists would succeed in at least one spectacular attack in Europe or the United States. It didn’t happen.
But I got the stock market generally right. I predicted the Dow would top 14,000, although I fudged and didn’t say when. After hitting highs in the summer, stock prices faded as the economy slowed and the housing crisis deepened.
So here are my predictions for 2008. Given the uncertain state of the world, they’re likely to be even more reckless and uninformed than last year’s guesses.
In Pakistan, embattled President Pervez Musharraf, weakened even more by the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, will impose another state of emergency, postpone next month’s elections and narrowly avert a possible civil war — for now. Little good will occur in this country until the Islamist militants infesting the northwest tribal areas are brought under control.
Iraq: The country will continue to muddle its way toward a more effective representative democracy, but not without major setbacks. Such as? Well, what if the jihadists copy the North Vietnamese?
Here I’m cribbing from the columnist Austin Bay, who expects insurgents and al-Qaida terrorists to ignite a 2008 version of the 1968 Tet Offensive in Vietnam — just the thing to stir up the U.S. presidential race and prompt many in the media and leading Democrats to, once again, argue that Iraq is unwinnable.
Even so, progress in Iraq will persist by fits and starts. The bottom-up reconciliation that began at the local and tribal level will finally encompass the national government. The parliament will begin passing needed legislation, including bills overturning anti-Baathist decrees and grants of limited amnesty to detainees.
Oil will briefly top $110 a barrel. We’ll wail and rend our garments. Life will go on.
The current economic slowdown will persist through midyear, but the recession fears of recent months will prove to be overdone: When the worst of the credit crunch stemming from the subprime mess is resolved a few months hence, growth will perk up and the stock market will revive.
Inflation will moderate and the Dow will finish the year above 15,000. Full disclosure: I rarely win the guess-the-Dow office pool. I’m usually too optimistic.
But I have my reasons. Standard & Poor’s says earnings for the S&P 500 index are expected to grow by nearly 12 percent in this year’s fourth quarter, excluding the financial sector. Except for finance and housing, the economy is doing reasonably well.
In the Middle East, everyone will continue hating everyone else. OK, that’s hardly a daring prediction. So: The Israelis will invade Gaza and clean out the incompetent Hamas “government.”
Talks will begin with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, which means the headlines will say what they’ve said for years: “Middle East peace talks continue.” My 18-year-old son will retire before any talks lead to a lasting result, but I’m not counting that as an official prediction.
Next year, Arizona will offer a test of how much Americans really want the sort of immigration reform that focuses mainly on enforcement. Under a new state law, companies that knowingly hire illegals will have their business license revoked for up to 10 days. For a second offense, they could be put out of business permanently.
One study predicted the law will kill 56,000 jobs, reduce output by $6.6 billion and cost the state $270 million in lost revenue. If the statute is forcefully applied, I predict Arizonans won’t like enforcement-only immigration reform. Meanwhile, the rest of the country will benefit from the example.
Locally, the Power & Light District in downtown Kansas City will open and prove a great success. City Hall will be consumed by incessant quarrels stemming from Mayor Mark Funkhouser’s growing isolation.
As for the presidential race, the nominees will be Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney. Who will win in November? Can’t say. What, you think I’m a fortune teller or something?
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