The NFL is a passing league and a quarterback’s game. Look no further than 2011 when two passers — Drew Brees and Tom Brady — threw for more than 5,000 yards, breaking Dan Marino’s 27-year league record, and seven other quarterbacks threw for more than 4,000 yards.
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Predictions
AFC East Patriots Rest of the division in flux AFC North Ravens They keep coming so close AFC South Texans Schaub missed all the fun last year AFC West Chargers They’re due or Norv is done AFC wild cards Steelers, Bills AFC champion Ravens This one won’t get away AFC East Washington A rookie will lead them NFC North Packers Rodgers has a loaded offense NFC South Panthers Cam Newton comes of age NFC West 49ers Great defense, easy division NFC wild cards Giants, Bears NFC champion 49ers Won’t sqander home field this time Super Bowl champ Ravens John Harbaugh wins the Brothers Bowl
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Three quarterbacks to watch
Peyton Manning, Broncos
It still looks a little strange seeing Manning in the orange and blue of the Colts. Manning, who ranks third all-time in career completions (4,682), yards (54,828), TDs (399) and fourth in wins (141) will have to guide the Broncos through a land mine of an early schedule, including games against Pittsburgh, at Atlanta and at New England and at Cincinnati and home and home with San Diego before the Chiefs even see him. If they see him by Nov. 25.
Tim Tebow, Jets
The biggest question surrounding Tebow is how the Jets will use him as the complement to four-year starter Mark Sanchez. Will it be in goal-line and short-yardage situations? Will it be in the Wildcat formation that new offensive coordinator Tony Sparano introduced to the NFL a few years ago at Miami? How about two-point conversions? Tebow’s limitations as a passer are well-documented, so when he does enter games, the Jets will be woefully predictable.
Robert Griffin III, Washington
Griffin represents coach Mike Shanahan’s last shot at proving he can win something without John Elway. Shanahan went 1-4 in the post-season at Denver after Elway’s retirement following the 1998 season, and he’s just 11-21 in two seasons at Washington. Griffin, the 2011 Heisman Trophy winner, is the toast of Washington right now, but Shanahan covered his bases in the event Griffin’s scrambling results in an injury and selected Kirk Cousins in the fourth round.
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Five MVP candidates
Tom Brady, Patriots QB
Brady’s a two-time MVP, and a case could have made for him last season when he directed the Patriots to the Super Bowl after leading the AFC in completion percentage (65.6 percentage), yards ( 5,235), TDs (39), and passer rating (105.6).
Drew Brees, Saints QB
It won’t be enough that Brees, who threw for an NFL-record 5,476 yards and league-leading 46 TDs, replicates his performance of last year. He’ll earn his new, five year, $100 million contract as a coach on the field while Sean Payton serves his one-year suspension because of the bounty scandal.
Aaron Rodgers, Packers QB
Rodgers may be the best player in the game today. He set an NFL record with a 122.5 passer rating with 45 TDs and just six INTs last season and most importantly, led the Packers to a 15-1 record last year. It doesn’t get much better than that.
Michael Vick, Eagles QB
The Eagles missed the playoffs for the first time in four years, and it’s going to be up to Vick, who signed a five-year, $80 million contract in 2011 as the face of the franchise. As always with the mercurial Vick, the critical issue is staying healthy. Vick missed four starts in 2010 and three last year.
Eli Manning, Giants QB
Has any two-time Super Bowl champion and two-time Super Bowl MVP been so overshadowed by others more than Manning? Older brother Peyton dominated the headlines in his move from Indianapolis to Denver. The daily chaos with the Jets and Tebowmania fill the back pages of the New York tabloids. All Eli does is win.
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Three coaching gambles
Greg Schiano, Buccaneers
College coaches don’t have a good track record of success in the NFL, but the Buccaneers brought in Schiano to clean up the mess left by Raheem Morris. Schiano spent the past 12 years as head coach at Rutgers, and if anyone can turn around that program, he can rebuild the Bucs. Rutgers had been to one bowl game in the previous 135 years before Schiano took over, and he led them to six bowls during 2005-11, going 56-33 during that stretch, including 5-1 in the bowls.
Chuck Pagano, Colts
Pagano, in his first season as Baltimore’s defensive coordinator, was still reeling from the Ravens’ loss in the AFC Championship Game when he got the call to interview for the Colts job. Pagano, who had been an NFL assistant for 10 years, including four with the Ravens, has never been a head coach at any level, and he’ll be working with a new general manager in Ryan Grigson and a rookie quarterback in Andrew Luck.
Dennis Allen, Raiders
Dennis who? That was a typical reaction when Allen was hired by the Raiders’ new management team as the youngest head coach in the league. Allen, who turns 50 next month, served as Denver’s defensive coordinator in 2011.
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Three sure things
Andrew Luck, Colts QB
Luck was the most clear-cut, no doubt-about-it first overall pick since John Elway in 1983 (also by the Colts, but that’s another story), and so far in the preseason, he’s done little to question Indianapolis’ decision to let go of Peyton Manning and put the future in Luck’s hands. “He’s got great knowledge about the offense,” coach Chuck Pagano said. “He digests a ton, has great command of the huddle, knows what to do with the football. The guy is just way ahead of the curve right now for a rookie quarterback."
Cam Newton, Panthers QB
There were plenty of questions about whether Newton was worthy of the No. 1 overall pick in 2011 or if he was a product of a college system at Auburn. Wonder no longer. Newton threw for 4,051 yards and ran for 706 (with 14 TDs) and lifted the Panthers from a two-win team to a 6-10 team in his first year. If he cuts down on the interceptions, Carolina could be a factor in the NFC South.
Cowboys chaos
It’s only a matter of time before Dallas owner Jerry Jones will be fielding the questions about the status of coach Jason Garrett. The Cowboys begin with two on the road, including an almost unwinnable game when they visit the defending Super Bowl champion Giants in the annual prime-time kickoff opener on Sept. 5.
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Three long shots
Alex Smith, 49ers QB
What are the odds that Smith can duplicate the career numbers _ 3,144 yards, 61.3 percent, 17 TDs, five INTS _ that he put up last season for the surprising 49ers? Heck, even the 49ers didn’t believe it and pursued Peyton Manning before Manning picked with Denver and Smith signed a six-year, $49 million deal with San Francisco.
Norv Turner, Chargers coach
It’s baffling how the Chargers keep bringing back Turner even though the team continues to regress and has missed the playoffs the last two years while playing in a winnable division. The Chargers, who suffered through a hideous six-game losing streak last year, have been hit hard by injuries in preseason, and if they get off to another one of their slow starts, Turner has little chance of getting through this season.
Leave you in St. Louis
The chances are pretty remote that the folks in St. Louis can turn the landlocked and austere Edward Jones Dome into a “top-tier facility” that ranks among the top eight stadiums by 2015, as stipulated by the lease. So expect the Rams to return to Los Angeles, where a new stadium will await.
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Five rookie gambles
Justin Blackmon, Jaguars WR
The guy just can’t stay out of trouble off the field, much like his former Oklahoma State teammate Dez Bryant of the Dallas Cowboys. Blackmon, the fifth pick in the draft, has a ton of talent, but Blackmon was arrested on an aggravated DUI charge in mid-June, his second DUI since last October.
Dontari Poe, Chiefs NT
There’s not much question that Poe has the measurables to play in the NFL, but the 11th overall pick in the draft did not dominate in college at Memphis, a non-BCS school, and he appears destined to spend his rookie year playing on passing downs and backing up unheralded Anthony Toribio in the base defense.
Janoris Jenkins, Rams CB
St. Louis appeared to be taking a chance when they selected Jenkins with a second-round pick obtained in the Robert Griffin trade. Jenkins had a history of arrests while at Florida before finishing his college career at North Alabama. But he’s won a starting job and was active in the preseason game against the Chiefs with five tackles and a forced fumble
Bruce Irvin, Seahawks DE
Eyebrows were raised when Seattle reached for Irvin, an undersized pass rusher with character issues, in the first round. Irvin did not make an impact in the first two preseason games, often getting smothered by much bigger offensive tackles. He’ll play on passing downs for the Seahawks, who ranked 22nd in the league with 33 sacks last year.
Michael Egnew, Dolphins TE
Did you see offensive coordinator Mike Sherman chew out Egnew for not knowing the offense on “Hard Knocks”? He was ready to cut him after the first preseason game. Will Egnew follow in the footsteps of failed Mizzou tight ends Chase Coffman and Martin Ruckier? Or those of Hall of Famer Kellen Winslow?
That’s why several teams rolled the dice in the off-season, either through free agency, trades or the draft to find quarterbacks who can lift their franchises to a Super Bowl.
The biggest blockbuster was Denver’s signing four-time league MVP Peyton Manning, who missed all of 2011 because of neck surgeries. Manning, 36, led the Indianapolis Colts to nine straight playoff appearances, three AFC Championship Games and two Super Bowls, winning Super Bowl XLI.
As Manning moved into the Mile High City, Tim Tebow, who miraculously led the Broncos to an AFC West title and wild-card playoff win, was shipped for fourth- and sixth-round draft picks to the New York Jets, although they appeared to be set at the position with Mark Sanchez.
The bottom feeders in the league found their quarterbacks of the future in the draft.
Indianapolis, with the first overall pick, seamlessly replaced Manning with Andrew Luck of Stanford, perhaps the most NFL-ready quarterback since Manning in 1998. Washington made the most daring move by giving St. Louis three first-round draft choices and a second-rounder for the right to select Robert Griffin III of Baylor with the second pick and immediately declared him the starter.
Miami and Cleveland also took big gambles with quarterbacks in the first round of the draft. The Dolphins selected Ryan Tannehill of Texas A&M even though he started less than two years for the Aggies. And the Browns went the unconventional route when they selected 28-year old Brandon Weeden of Oklahoma State, who spent five years playing minor league baseball before embarking on his college football career.
It’s no coincidence the top six NFL jerseys sold during April 1 to June 30 on NFLShop.com belong to quarterbacks, starting with Peyton Manning, followed by Griffin, Tebow, Luck, Eli Manning of the Super Bowl champion Giants and 2011 league MVP Aaron Rodgers of Green Bay.
