The sketch outline of the most hopeful Royals team in years is filling in now, and with permanent marker. We can now see what this thing will look like.
Parts of it we’ve already known about. They will be young, and they will be built around the hitting talent of Eric Hosmer and Billy Butler, the defensive ability of Alcides Escobar and Salvador Perez, and the all-round game of Alex Gordon. We saw glimpses of this last summer.It’s the pitching that is coming into focus, first with the trade for lefty starter Jonathan Sanchez, and now with the signing of former All-Star closer Jonathan Broxton.Signing Broxton is a signal the Royals are a bit freaked out by the market for starting pitchers — Bruce Chen, a No. 4 starter, passed on bigger offers to sign for two years and $9 million with the Royals — and have focused on building the best possible bullpen around a hope-for-the-best rotation.It’s actually a better strategy than you might think, with a few caveats.The Royals played with (by far) the lowest payroll in baseball last season and should see at least a modest bump in ticket sales from an improving team and playing host to the All-Star Game.So a projected payroll increase from $35 million to $60 million is fine for now as long as the current savings are considered down the road — particularly with the limitations on amateur spending in baseball’s new collective-bargaining agreement.In other words, it’s perfectly understandable for the Royals to pass on top free-agent starters such as C.J. Wilson and Edwin Jackson as long as it’s for the right reasons. In a weak free-agent class, those guys are likely to get contracts bigger than their abilities.But next year’s class includes Cole Hamels, Matt Cain, Shaun Marcum and, ahem, Zack Greinke and others, which should mean more realistic (if still enormous) contracts.That’s when it will be on David Glass to loosen restrictions, and for all the justified criticism of Glass in Kansas City, he’s been a supportive small-market owner in more recent years.So in the meantime, general manager Dayton Moore is trying to game the system. If top-level starting pitching is overpriced, then the Royals will try to win with what they think can be a killer (and eight-man) bullpen.Broxton is a year and a half removed from his best form, and there is some concern that he’s lost confidence. But he was also hurt, is now presumably healthy, and is still just 27 years old with one of the game’s best fastballs and a devastating slider.Greg Holland may be good enough that Broxton is the seventh-inning guy. Add Tim Collins, Louis Coleman, Kelvin Herrera, Blake Wood and someone else in front of Joakim Soria, and this figures to be one of the American League’s best bullpens.So the plan is coming into focus. The Royals expect to score enough runs, use their athletic ability defensively (Lorenzo Cain, Escobar and Perez will be as good as virtually any team’s center fielder, shortstop and catcher), and plan on winning the late innings.Top bullpens aren’t as strongly correlated to winning as top rotations, but the Royals have enough young, in-house candidates to want to avoid long-term and big-money contracts they’ll regret in a few years.Under the circumstances, it’s the smartest plan when balancing the allure of their window opening this year with the likelihood it will increase each year until Hosmer and the others hit free agency.To make it work, they need some five-man combination of Sanchez, Chen, Luke Hochevar, Felipe Paulino, Danny Duffy, Aaron Crow, Everett Teaford and Mike Montgomery to form an adequate rotation.As tempting as it may be to chase a weak free-agent class this winter, the Royals are in a better position for the long term than teams forced to play big-money, free-agent roulette. Because a roster loaded with young talent that will be around for years gets its first wire-to-wire opportunity this spring.Moore and company are betting that there is enough on the roster right now to compete, and in a worst-case scenario at least enough to know what they’ll need to add from a much better free-agent market next winter.The Royals’ strategy is a bit passive, so one homework assignment. As a way to explore one last chance to shape the 2012 roster, find out what Soria and his still-below-market-value contract are worth in a trade, because top relief pitchers are making a ton of money now.Jonathan Papelbon signed a $50 million contract, Rafael Soriano will make $11 million next season to set up for the Yankees, and Joe Nathan signed for two years and $14.5 million after throwing just 15 1/3 innings in his first season after Tommy John surgery.The Royals are in position to take advantage, because the market for starting pitching isn’t the only one that’s escalating.
More on the Royals
•Former Dodgers closer Jonathan Broxton beefs up the bullpen.•Left-hander Bruce Chen is optimistic about the team’s chances in 2012.
•Former Dodgers closer Jonathan Broxton beefs up the bullpen.•Left-hander Bruce Chen is optimistic about the team’s chances in 2012.
