It shapes up as a pretty simple offseason for general manager Dayton Moore and his lieutenants; they have just one “must” on their checklist between now and next February when the Royals report for spring training in Surprise, Ariz.
Acquire a front-line starting pitcher.“That’s it in a nutshell,” one club official said. “We need that one veteran reliable guy to build around. We’d love to get two but, realistically, that’s probably not going to happen. But one guy, if he’s the right guy, should be enough to make a big difference.”So, yes, the Royals will look hard at the free-agent list.While CC Sabathia (assuming he opts out of his contract) and C.J. Wilson are likely to be too pricey, the Royals figure to take a run at Edwin Jackson. But club officials say any impact acquisition is likely to come through a trade.“We’ll be aggressive,” Moore said, “but it’s got to make sense. And from everything I hear, everyone is looking for pitching. So we’ll see.”Moore is already on record for his willingness to deal prospects for that much-needed arm. That means guys in the minors; not those already in the big leagues. So, no, Eric Hosmer isn’t likely to go anywhere. Neither is Sal Perez nor Mike Moustakas.“The bottom line is we can’t weaken our strengths,” Moore said. “We can’t regress in one area to try to become a little bit better in another area.”The Royals might dangle some of their young relievers as part of a deal — which is one reason they wanted to get a late-season look at Vin Mazzaro in the bullpen. But the key element in any swap is likely to come from the club’s collection of minor-league talent. Cleveland offered a possible blueprint in late July by trading its top two pitching prospects, Alex White and Drew Pomeranz, as part of a five-player deal to get Ubaldo Jimenez from Colorado.“I love our prospects,” another Royals official said, “but all that matters is what you do up here. If we can get the guy we need, and it costs us Cheslor Cuthbert or Wil Myers or even (Mike) Montgomery or (Jake) Odorizzi, I think we do it. Now, it has to be the right guy …”Club officials are reluctant, unsurprisingly, to reveal possible trade targets. One said only half-jokingly: “You can probably go through all the rosters. Anyone who fits the profile is on our list.”Even so, some names are already making the rounds: James Shields (Rays), Chad Billingsley (Dodgers), Gio Gonzalez (A’s), Jair Jurrjens (Braves), Wandy Rodriguez (Astros) along with Matt Garza, Ryan Dempster and Carlos Zambrano of the Cubs. Shields seems the best fit — if the Rays are indeed willing to deal him after their surprising run to postseason — because his salary is about to jump from $4.25 million to $7 million in 2012, $9 million in 2013 and $12 million in 2014.That might be more than the frugal Rays can afford, but it fits within the Royals’ short-term payroll structure — especially because there are buyout options each year. Tampa Bay is also seeking high-end, position-player prospects, which the Royals possess.Shields, while just 29, is also used to being the lynchpin in a young staff. But he gave up seven runs and threw two wild pitches in five innings Saturday as the Rays lost 8-6 at Texas, evening their AL playoff series at one game apiece.The Dodgers are a financial mess at the moment, which could lead them to shop Billingsley, whose three-year, $35 million deal takes effect next season and includes a club option for 2015 at $14 million.Many industry insiders believe the A’s will shop pitching this winter, and the Royals have always liked Gonzalez, who becomes eligible for arbitration after this season. Atlanta is loaded with young pitchers and is likely to see what it can get for Jurrjens, whose salary will jump this winter as a first-time arbitration eligible. But he comes with a red flag; injuries limited him to 20 and 23 starts over the last two years.Houston tried to trade Rodriguez in its July fire sale, but his contract is steep: a guaranteed $25.5 million over the next two years. Some scouts believe Rodriguez’s stuff plays out no better than a No. 3 starter on a good American League team. The Cubs appear in line for a major overhaul and, from all accounts, are willing to eat a sizable portion of Zambrano’s guaranteed $37.25 million over the next two years just to unload him. He’s a legitimate No. 1 when in top form, but his baggage is considerable.Dempster appears on the decline and holds an option for next season at $14 million. Scouts say he has the leadership intangibles the Royals desire, but he might top out as a borderline No. 3 starter. The Royals are hoping for more; he might be a fall-back option.The Cubs seem inclined to retain Garza, who is in line for a raise through arbitration from his $5.95 million salary before reaching free-agent eligibility after next season. Even if available, how much do the Royals want to surrender for one year? “We’re not going to do anything that doesn’t make sense for us in the long term,” Moore said. “That’s why the most important thing for us is to make the pitchers we have better. If we can just trim our walks by 100, that would be huge.”The Royals led the American League in walks, which was the main reason that pitching coach Bob McClure was fired after six seasons.“I think there’s a lot of upside in our rotation,” manager Ned Yost said. “I think (Luke) Hochevar really turned a corner the second half; I think Danny Duffy is going to be a tremendous pitcher; I think (Felipe) Paulino has a chance to be a very solid producer.“I was very impressed with (Luis) Mendoza when he came up; I was impressed with (Everett) Teaford these last couple of starts. We’ve got Vin Mazzaro, who’ll have a shot. We’ve got Montgomery, who will compete for a spot. We’re going to try Aaron Crow as a starter next spring. So I think we’re going to have enough solid pitching to help us get better.”Nonetheless, club officials aren’t kidding themselves. They know they need a reliable veteran arm who, preferably, is a legitimate starter No. 2 on a postseason contender; failing that, a solid No. 3 guy.“We need 1,000 innings out of our rotation,” Moore said. “I’ve been very consistent with that from day one. To win a world championship, you’d better dominate in a couple of areas. Certainly, pitching is one of them.”
Catching
Sal Perez is the undisputed starter, and the backup will be Brayan Peña or Manny Piña.•Contract issues: Peña is eligible for arbitration, but the Royals’ recent history is not to offer arbitration to backup players. That effectively sets a Dec. 12 deadline for a new deal. Peña has indicated a strong preference to stay.•On the way: Nothing close.Infield
Three starters are set: first baseman Eric Hosmer, shortstop Alcides Escobar and third baseman Mike Moustakas. Johnny Giavotella is the favorite to start at second, but he’s got to hit to compensate for his defensive shortcomings. Designated hitter Billy Butler is Hosmer’s backup at first.The questions surrounding Giavotella heightens interest in retaining Chris Getz, a steady defensive second baseman who, scouts say, lacks the range to play short or the arm to play third.•Contract issues: Getz is eligible for arbitration, and the Royals won’t be inclined to offer it. That could open a spot for Yamaico Navarro. The Royals could seek a low-cost utilityman in the free-agent market.•On the way: Some club officials believe shortstop Christian Colon, the club’s first-round pick in 2010, could supplant Giavotella by the end of next year at second base. First baseman/DH Clint Robinson remains blocked by Hosmer and Butler and could be a trade chip. Outfield
Right fielder Jeff Francoeur signed a two-year extension in August, and the Royals will try to work out a multi-year deal this winter with left fielder Alex Gordon, who is eligible for arbitration.A multi-year deal for center fielder Melky Cabrera, who is also eligible for arbitration, seems far less likely. Cabrera is believed to be seeking four or five years, while the Royals remain wary of spiking the incentive that comes with a one-year deal. Cabrera is the most-likely regular to be dealt because the Royals believe they have a replacement in Lorenzo Cain. Mitch Maier remains a snug fit as the fourth outfielder because he can play all three positions.•Contract issues: Gordon, Cabrera and Maier are eligible for arbitration. The first two are certain to be offered, but the club might non-tender Maier if he fails to reach agreement prior to the deadline.•On the way: Cain is ready now and only spent the season at Omaha because Gordon, Cabrera and Francoeur stayed healthy and played well. Jarrod Dyson’s bat remains suspect, but his speed is a plus weapon, and his defense is solid.Rotation
Luke Hochevar is the only sure thing, although Felipe Paulino and Danny Duffy would have to stumble badly to lose their spots. After that, it’s anybody’s guess — and the Royals will spend the winter seeking to add an impact arm.Veteran lefties Bruce Chen and Jeff Francis are free agents; either one might be back, but it’s unlikely both will return. The Royals seem to prefer Chen, who led the club in victories over each of the last two years.Those in line for a spring look include Everett Teaford, Luis Mendoza, Vin Mazzaro, Sean O’Sullivan, Aaron Crow, Nate Adcock and Mike Montgomery. The Royals also seem certain to invite Jake Odorizzi, Chris Dwyer and Will Smith to camp.•Contract issues: The Royals appear open to a two-year deal for Chen, but he is likely to shop around after two strong seasons. Hochevar and Paulino are eligible for arbitration.•On the way: Montgomery flashed No. 1 stuff last spring in camp and, with another strong performance, could easily win a job in next year’s rotation. Club officials believe Odorizzi needs only to add 10-15 pounds to generate another 2-3 mph on his fastball and become a front-of-the-rotation guy. Dwyer and Smith finished strong at Class AA Northwest Arkansas after some early struggles.Bullpen
Joakim Soria remains the closer despite an inconsistent season. But if his struggles continue, the Royals have a ready replacement in Greg Holland, who posted a 1.80 ERA in 46 games.There are no guarantees anywhere else, although Louis Coleman and/or Blake Wood would have to pitch poorly not to remain in the big leagues. Tim Collins is probably safe, despite allowing 48 walks in 67 innings, because there is no viable lefty alternative.Aaron Crow will return to the bullpen if he fails to win a rotation spot. The same is probably true for Everett Teaford and, maybe, Vin Mazzaro. Jeremy Jeffress and Jesse Chavez are on the 40-man roster and will get a look. Nate Adcock is unlikely to return to the bullpen. He no longer has Rule 5 protection, which means the Royals can send him to the minors without putting him through waivers. Club officials see him as a starter.•Contract issues: The Royals will pick up Soria’s $6 million option. His contract has a $750,000 buyout.•On the way: Kelvin Herrera got a late-season look after a breakthrough summer that saw him selected as the organization’s minor-league pitcher of the year.
Sal Perez is the undisputed starter, and the backup will be Brayan Peña or Manny Piña.•Contract issues: Peña is eligible for arbitration, but the Royals’ recent history is not to offer arbitration to backup players. That effectively sets a Dec. 12 deadline for a new deal. Peña has indicated a strong preference to stay.•On the way: Nothing close.Infield
Three starters are set: first baseman Eric Hosmer, shortstop Alcides Escobar and third baseman Mike Moustakas. Johnny Giavotella is the favorite to start at second, but he’s got to hit to compensate for his defensive shortcomings. Designated hitter Billy Butler is Hosmer’s backup at first.The questions surrounding Giavotella heightens interest in retaining Chris Getz, a steady defensive second baseman who, scouts say, lacks the range to play short or the arm to play third.•Contract issues: Getz is eligible for arbitration, and the Royals won’t be inclined to offer it. That could open a spot for Yamaico Navarro. The Royals could seek a low-cost utilityman in the free-agent market.•On the way: Some club officials believe shortstop Christian Colon, the club’s first-round pick in 2010, could supplant Giavotella by the end of next year at second base. First baseman/DH Clint Robinson remains blocked by Hosmer and Butler and could be a trade chip. Outfield
Right fielder Jeff Francoeur signed a two-year extension in August, and the Royals will try to work out a multi-year deal this winter with left fielder Alex Gordon, who is eligible for arbitration.A multi-year deal for center fielder Melky Cabrera, who is also eligible for arbitration, seems far less likely. Cabrera is believed to be seeking four or five years, while the Royals remain wary of spiking the incentive that comes with a one-year deal. Cabrera is the most-likely regular to be dealt because the Royals believe they have a replacement in Lorenzo Cain. Mitch Maier remains a snug fit as the fourth outfielder because he can play all three positions.•Contract issues: Gordon, Cabrera and Maier are eligible for arbitration. The first two are certain to be offered, but the club might non-tender Maier if he fails to reach agreement prior to the deadline.•On the way: Cain is ready now and only spent the season at Omaha because Gordon, Cabrera and Francoeur stayed healthy and played well. Jarrod Dyson’s bat remains suspect, but his speed is a plus weapon, and his defense is solid.Rotation
Luke Hochevar is the only sure thing, although Felipe Paulino and Danny Duffy would have to stumble badly to lose their spots. After that, it’s anybody’s guess — and the Royals will spend the winter seeking to add an impact arm.Veteran lefties Bruce Chen and Jeff Francis are free agents; either one might be back, but it’s unlikely both will return. The Royals seem to prefer Chen, who led the club in victories over each of the last two years.Those in line for a spring look include Everett Teaford, Luis Mendoza, Vin Mazzaro, Sean O’Sullivan, Aaron Crow, Nate Adcock and Mike Montgomery. The Royals also seem certain to invite Jake Odorizzi, Chris Dwyer and Will Smith to camp.•Contract issues: The Royals appear open to a two-year deal for Chen, but he is likely to shop around after two strong seasons. Hochevar and Paulino are eligible for arbitration.•On the way: Montgomery flashed No. 1 stuff last spring in camp and, with another strong performance, could easily win a job in next year’s rotation. Club officials believe Odorizzi needs only to add 10-15 pounds to generate another 2-3 mph on his fastball and become a front-of-the-rotation guy. Dwyer and Smith finished strong at Class AA Northwest Arkansas after some early struggles.Bullpen
Joakim Soria remains the closer despite an inconsistent season. But if his struggles continue, the Royals have a ready replacement in Greg Holland, who posted a 1.80 ERA in 46 games.There are no guarantees anywhere else, although Louis Coleman and/or Blake Wood would have to pitch poorly not to remain in the big leagues. Tim Collins is probably safe, despite allowing 48 walks in 67 innings, because there is no viable lefty alternative.Aaron Crow will return to the bullpen if he fails to win a rotation spot. The same is probably true for Everett Teaford and, maybe, Vin Mazzaro. Jeremy Jeffress and Jesse Chavez are on the 40-man roster and will get a look. Nate Adcock is unlikely to return to the bullpen. He no longer has Rule 5 protection, which means the Royals can send him to the minors without putting him through waivers. Club officials see him as a starter.•Contract issues: The Royals will pick up Soria’s $6 million option. His contract has a $750,000 buyout.•On the way: Kelvin Herrera got a late-season look after a breakthrough summer that saw him selected as the organization’s minor-league pitcher of the year.
