What will put yeast in a job market that’s flatter than a tortilla?
Friday’s stagnant economic report — which said that U.S. employers added zero jobs in August and that the unemployment rate stayed stuck at 9.1 percent — put added importance on next week’s presidential address.President Barack Obama is expected to call on Congress Thursday night to allot more money for infrastructure improvement, for job retraining, and for tax incentives for small businesses that add workers.The stalled employment picture also puts more pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who so far has rejected a third round of bond purchases to try to jumpstart growth by lowering long-term interest rates.Investors, fearing that Friday’s report indicates a double-dip recession is more likely, drove the Dow Jones industrial average down 253 points.“Today’s numbers will embolden those who argue for new initiatives to stimulate economic growth,” said Chad Moutray, chief economist for the National Association of Manufacturers.The manufacturing sector lost a modest 3,000 jobs last month, its first decline since October 2010. Other sectors lost more. Construction was down 5,000, retail 7,800 and information services 48,000, though 45,000 of that was temporary because of the strike by Verizon land-line workers.Some sectors gained. Health care was up 35,500 and professional services 28,000.Payroll jobs in government fell by 17,000.Government jobs have been on a downward spiral since September 2008, predominantly in cash-strapped local governments and school districts.August was the first month since September 2010 that failed to show job gains. Net monthly gains over the last 11 months ranged from a low of 20,000 in June to a high of 235,000 in February.Twenty-nine of the 32 months before October 2010 had net job losses.The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics also revised job gains reported for June and July downward by 58,000.The oddest note about the August report was that it was the first time since 1945 that the Labor Department recorded a month in which the jobs needle failed to move up or down.More relevant is that participation in the U.S. labor force is about 4 million workers under where it should be at this point in a recovery.And among the unemployed who want to work, nearly 43 percent have been job-hunting for more than six months — which makes re-employment more difficult.The monthly job numbers “are not progress, and the longer we are from making progress, the bigger problems we have,” said Keith Hall, commissioner of the statistics bureau. In a phone interview, Hall said, “We’ve had the worst of two things — a deep, long recession with a slow recovery — both of which make it particularly costly for the job market” as well as for the 6 million long-term unemployed.Despite the harmful effects of long-term unemployment for mid-career workers, young workers have been hardest hit, he said.“References to a lost generation are correct,” Hall said, referring to the 16 to 24 age group, which has been sinking to labor force participation lows since mid-2009.But economist Peter Morici said the pain was widely shared.“Factoring in those discouraged adults and others working part time for lack of full-time opportunities, the unemployment rate is about 16 percent,” Morici said. “Adding college graduates in low-skill positions, like counterwork at Starbucks, the unemployment rate is closer to 20 percent.”Obama had no comment Friday on the jobs report. U.S. House Speaker John Boehner said in a news release that the job figures showed that private-sector growth was “undermined by the triple threat of higher taxes, more failed stimulus spending and excessive federal regulations.”Whatever jobs program the president proposes is likely to be opposed by the Republican majority in the U.S. House.At the Full Employment Council in Kansas City, which uses government grants for job retraining, director Clyde McQueen said new funds would be an effective stimulus if they were for shorter, on-demand vocational training, rather than semester-long classes. “The typical training models just aren’t fast enough anymore,” McQueen said. “We need six-week, on-the-job or after-work programs that can be delivered to three people here, four people there, as needed.“Big employers aren’t creating jobs. Small employers are. But that means we can’t deliver large-volume training in one place. We need something bold and different.”Danny O’Neill, a small-business owner who founded The Roasterie, also hopes the president will propose something bold — particularly a Works Progress Administration-type of public works improvement program.“A tax credit for some small businesses might encourage them to bring a temp on as an employee,” O’Neill said, “but it certainly wouldn’t motivate me. We hire folks because we need them because our business is growing, not because of some tax incentive.”O’Neill said he thinks putting more people to work building roads and bridges would have the best economic impact.Such a program would aim to stem a long-term decline in construction employment, which is down by more than 2 million since 2007.The design and construction industry has had a jobless rate nearly two times the national average over the last three years.Stephen Sandherr, chief executive of the Associated General Contractors of America, said, “You can’t fix our economy until you fix the construction industry.” Ken Simonson, chief economist for the association, said infrastructure investment would “create assets that improve productivity and quality of life for decades in the future,” just as letting infrastructure decay “costs the economy dearly and makes future construction more expensive.”
AUGUST EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS
(in thousands)What went up:Mining and logging + 5 Wholesale trade + 1.6Financial activities + 3Professional and business services + 28Health care and social assistance + 35.5 Leisure and hospitality + 2What went down:Construction – 5Manufacturing – 3Retail – 7.8Transportation and warehousing – 2.4Education services – 1.6Government – 17Information – 48**45,000 temporary loss because of Verizon strike
(in thousands)What went up:Mining and logging + 5 Wholesale trade + 1.6Financial activities + 3Professional and business services + 28Health care and social assistance + 35.5 Leisure and hospitality + 2What went down:Construction – 5Manufacturing – 3Retail – 7.8Transportation and warehousing – 2.4Education services – 1.6Government – 17Information – 48**45,000 temporary loss because of Verizon strike
