Playoffs? Examining the possibility of an improbable KC playoff run

As my brother in blogging Pete Grathoff pointed out in this post that, because Major League Soccer subscribes to the American-playoff model, every team that makes it to the playoffs has a shot at winning the whole thing. So the Wizards can dream big still, even though they're in the bottom half the standings.

Pete used last year’s run by Real Salt Lake as an example. But you can go back the last six years and find more examples of the squeakers making loud noises in the playoffs. New York got to the championship game in 2008. In 2007, the last two teams into the playoffs (Chicago and Kansas City) reached the Conference Finals. The Los Angeles Galaxy won it all despite starting the playoffs as the 8th seed in ‘05. The Revs and their measly 33 points took D.C. United to penalties in the ‘04 conference finals (that’s when D.C. went on to upset top-of-the-table Kansas City for the Cup). I could go back and research this further, but I think that you probably get the idea: If you can just show up for the dance, you might go home as the prom king.

This is great in theory, but can Kansas City actually make it to the dance this year?

Category I: Teams that would make it if the playoffs started today

1. Los Angeles-x... 40 points (12-3-4, 19, +18)*
2. Real Salt Lake-x ... 34 (10-4-4, 18, +18)
3. Columbus-y ... 34 (10-4-4, 18, +10)
4. FC Dallas ... 27 (6-2-9, 17, +6)
5. New York-y ... 27 (8-6-3, 17, -1)
6. Seattle ... 25 (7-8-4, 19, -4)
7. Colorado ... 24 (6-5-6, 17, 2)
8. San Jose ... 23 (6-5-5, 16, 1)

*Points (win-loss-tie records, games played and goal differential)
x = Western Conference automatic qualifier
y= Eastern Conference automatic qualifier

Category II: Teams within 6 points of final playoff spot

9. Toronto ... 23 (6-6-5, 17, 0)
10. Chicago ... 20 (5-5-5, 15, 0)
11. Houston ... 20 (5-8-5, 18, -4)
12. Kansas City ... 19 (5-8-4, 17, -6)
13. Chivas ... 18 (5-9-3, 17, -2)

Category III: Teams that have a lot of ground to make up

14. Philadelphia ... 15 (4-8-3, 15, -8)
15. New England ... 15 (4-9-3, 16, -11)
16. D.C. United ... 12 (3-12-3, 18, -19)

Here are a few things to take away from this:

• There are 10 teams sitting between 18 and 28 points.
• Because of strange MLS scheduling procedures some Los Angeles and Seattle have played 19 games while Chicago and Philadelphia have only played 15. This complicates any prognosticating.
• Los Angeles is already at the “safe” amount of points to qualify for the playoffs with 11 games still to play.
• Dallas has only lost two games this year?

Now, about answering the question: Can the Wizards make the playoffs?

Well, yeah. But it won’t be easy.

The odds aren’t that bad. Doesn’t mean that isn’t a great clip from the greatest stupid movie ever.

The Wizards remaining 13 games break down like this: Seven games against teams from Category I (RSL, @SJ, @LAG, DAL, @NYRB, SEA, SJ), three against Category II teams (HOU, @CHV, @CHI) and three against Category III teams (NER, @PHI, @NER).

Estimating that the playoff boundary on the low end is 35-40 points (35 is really, really low by the way), the Wizards will have to get 16 points at the least and 21 to start feeling safe.

Here’s a hypothetical (stress hypothetical) that I feel is pretty logical:

The Wizards sweep up 9 points from the three teams from Category III, nip four points from teams in Category II (beat Houston at home + draw with Chivas in LA = 4 points) and find positive results against the four teams in Category I (sweep San Jose series + win against Seattle at home + draw with Dallas at home = 10 points).

Under this hypothetical, the home game against Salt Lake and the road dates with Los Angeles, New York and Chicago are losses.

That’s 23 points from 13 games, and would mean the Wizards end with 42 points on the year.

It’s not a cake walk (sweeping the season series with New England and San Jose aren’t gimmies, neither is the game at Philadelphia), but, given the recent form the Wizards have shown, at least it’s a possibility.

The main point of this entire blog post though, is this: The playoffs* start... now.

*Personally, I wish the playoffs weren't the whole enchilada. I wish the Supporter's Shield was the big trophy and the MLS Cup was secondary. After all, one of the larger points of soccer is that success in the long term trumps the short term. But that's an argument that we'll never win in this country.

For the next three months, the team will be trying to extricate itself from the hole it dug in May and June. Results this week against this Saturday against the team that most recently followed the last-one-in-hits-it-big template, Real Salt Lake, would be a massive step in the right direction.