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It figures that Kansas should make the Final Four
By JOE POSNANSKIThe Kansas City Star
DETROIT | Bill James came up with this formula. It’s always good to start a column like that. Bill has been coming up with mind-bending baseball stuff for so many years that he’s helped change the very look of the game — so much so that he will be featured on “60 Minutes” this Sunday to talk about all that.
Well, friends of Bill know that he loves college basketball about as much as he loves baseball. He has through the years fooled around with many different college basketball formulas. He tried for a long time to put together a rating system for college players — he eventually scrapped it. A couple of years ago, he came up with a formula to determine which college teams have the very best tradition.
This time, he has come up with a system to give us a little insight into the NCAA Tournament. And it’s a good system. It shows something very interesting, something you probably already expected: Kansas may never have a better shot to get to the Final Four.
Here’s how the system works — or at least the part I understand: Bill took the won-loss records of every first-round seed since the tournament expanded to 64 teams (for instance, No. 1 seeds are 96-0; No. 5 seeds are 65-31 and so on) and through various mathematical type methods he came up with a percentage of times one seed should beat another seed.
Make sense? For instance, according to the formula, a No. 4 seed should beat a No. 7 seed about 59 percent of the time. A No. 8 should beat a No. 12 about 66 percent of the time. And so on. Like most of Bill’s stuff, it’s really a lot simpler than it sounds. Really.
Here’s another thing: The system really appears to work, even better than Bill expected.
For instance: Bill’s formula suggests that a No. 2 seed should reach the Final Four 23.6 percent of the time. In actuality, No. 2 seeds have reached the Final Four 22.8 percent of the time, almost precisely the same.
Bill’s formula suggests that No. 1 seeds should win the national title 15.5 percent of the time — one out of every six or so. In actuality, No. 1 seeds have won 14.1 percent of the time, again, almost exactly the same.
Nobody says it’s perfect — least of all Bill — but the formula does offer a nice new look at what teams are facing by trying to win four straight games to get to the Final Four. Before Thursday night’s games, I used Bill’s formula to determine which team in the Sweet 16 has the best chance of getting to the Final Four.
The answer was predictable: It was Kansas. The reason is obvious — the Midwest bracket was wrecked by upsets last weekend. Bill’s system indicates that Kansas has a 68.1 percent chance of making it to the Final Four. That’s about as good a chance as a team can expect. To give you an idea, Memphis (the other No. 1 seed playing today) appears to have a 49.2 percent chance.
In the Midwest Regional, Bill’s system breaks down Final Four chances like so:
Kansas, 68.1 percent (1 to 2 odds).
Wisconsin, 24 percent (3 to 1 odds).
Davidson, 5.2 percent (18 to 1 odds)
Villanova, 2.7 percent (36 to 1 odds)
Now, obviously these are just percentages based on seeds — Davidson has been playing a lot better than a No. 10 seed, Villanova a lot better than a No. 12 — but there’s a larger point here: Kansas very much needs to get to the Final Four this year to make this season a success. Look, it’s never easy to get to the Final Four. You obviously have to beat good teams and hot teams no matter what year it is, no matter what bracket you are in.
But this is Kansas’ moment. The Jayhawks have a team of upperclassmen intact. They have three or four NBA picks. Georgetown is gone. Clemson is gone. Vanderbilt is gone. The Jayhawks have had a wonderful season with 33 victories and a share of the Big 12 title and a fabulous victory in the Big 12 tournament, but there’s no doubt now that the season will be a big disappointment if they don’t get to the Final Four.
What can stop them? Well, there are some hurdles. Tonight, it’s Villanova, and the Wildcats are hot. They played in a good conference, so they won’t be intimidated. They have a good coach, a bold New York point guard named Corey Fisher and a terrific all-round player named Scottie Reynolds who actually committed to Oklahoma first.
Also, the game will be played on a raised court in the middle of a huge dome, Ford Field, and that could affect the game. Sometimes, shooters can’t find the range in domes — because of the backdrop or the wind patterns or something — and so it will be worth watching the first few shots of Brandon Rush and Mario Chalmers.
Still, the Jayhawks are better than Villanova. The Wildcats did lose five in a row in the middle of the season and on Selection Sunday they were watching nervously.
If Kansas wins tonight they will face a very different challenge. They could play a very good Wisconsin team that probably deserved to be a No. 2 seed; the Badgers have seniors and a sense of purpose, and that would make them tough. Or Kansas could face Davidson, the Cinderella story of the tournament so far with the tournament Prince Charming, super scorer Stephen Curry. That would be a very different kind of challenge.
But hey it’s always something in the NCAA Tournament. Lots of stuff can get you. Overconfidence can get you. Bad officiating can get you. A terrible shooting day can get you. A baffling style can get you. Bottom line, to get to the Final Four, you have to overcome. Bill Self has done a lot of great things at Kansas. So far, in March, his team has not overcome.
This is the Jayhawks’ time. Kansas is the best team left in this region. The Jayhawks are the one team left that can win no matter what style is being played. They are the one team left that can overcome a slump by its best player (it’s not easy to say who is Kansas’ best player — that’s another advantage).
There’s no way to hide from it. The good news: Bill Self is not hiding from it.
“When we’re good, we’re really good,” he says.
If the Jayhawks are good this weekend, they will get Self to his first Final Four and be a serious threat to win their first championship since Danny and the Miracles. If they aren’t good, there will be more questions than ever before.