It figures that Kansas should make the Final Four

DETROIT | Bill James came up with this formula. It’s always good to start a column like that. Bill has been coming up with mind-bending baseball stuff for so many years that he’s helped change the very look of the game — so much so that he will be featured on “60 Minutes” this Sunday to talk about all that.

Well, friends of Bill know that he loves college basketball about as much as he loves baseball. He has through the years fooled around with many different college basketball formulas. He tried for a long time to put together a rating system for college players — he eventually scrapped it. A couple of years ago, he came up with a formula to determine which college teams have the very best tradition.

This time, he has come up with a system to give us a little insight into the NCAA Tournament. And it’s a good system. It shows something very interesting, something you probably already expected: Kansas may never have a better shot to get to the Final Four.

Here’s how the system works — or at least the part I understand: Bill took the won-loss records of every first-round seed since the tournament expanded to 64 teams (for instance, No. 1 seeds are 96-0; No. 5 seeds are 65-31 and so on) and through various mathematical type methods he came up with a percentage of times one seed should beat another seed.

Make sense? For instance, according to the formula, a No. 4 seed should beat a No. 7 seed about 59 percent of the time. A No. 8 should beat a No. 12 about 66 percent of the time. And so on. Like most of Bill’s stuff, it’s really a lot simpler than it sounds. Really.

Here’s another thing: The system really appears to work, even better than Bill expected.

For instance: Bill’s formula suggests that a No. 2 seed should reach the Final Four 23.6 percent of the time. In actuality, No. 2 seeds have reached the Final Four 22.8 percent of the time, almost precisely the same.

Bill’s formula suggests that No. 1 seeds should win the national title 15.5 percent of the time — one out of every six or so. In actuality, No. 1 seeds have won 14.1 percent of the time, again, almost exactly the same.

Nobody says it’s perfect — least of all Bill — but the formula does offer a nice new look at what teams are facing by trying to win four straight games to get to the Final Four. Before Thursday night’s games, I used Bill’s formula to determine which team in the Sweet 16 has the best chance of getting to the Final Four.

The answer was predictable: It was Kansas. The reason is obvious — the Midwest bracket was wrecked by upsets last weekend. Bill’s system indicates that Kansas has a 68.1 percent chance of making it to the Final Four. That’s about as good a chance as a team can expect. To give you an idea, Memphis (the other No. 1 seed playing today) appears to have a 49.2 percent chance.

In the Midwest Regional, Bill’s system breaks down Final Four chances like so:

Kansas, 68.1 percent (1 to 2 odds).

Wisconsin, 24 percent (3 to 1 odds).

Davidson, 5.2 percent (18 to 1 odds)

Villanova, 2.7 percent (36 to 1 odds)

Now, obviously these are just percentages based on seeds — Davidson has been playing a lot better than a No. 10 seed, Villanova a lot better than a No. 12 — but there’s a larger point here: Kansas very much needs to get to the Final Four this year to make this season a success. Look, it’s never easy to get to the Final Four. You obviously have to beat good teams and hot teams no matter what year it is, no matter what bracket you are in.

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To reach Joe Posnanski, call 816-234-4361 or send e-mail to jposnanski@kcstar.com. For previous columns, go to KansasCity.com